German Bundesliga
2011-04-17 - Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football ; Germany : Bundesliga
Allianz Arena
Sunday,17th April 2011 – kickoff 15:30
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have complicated their position in the Bundesliga even more with the 1-1 draw against FC Nurnberg last weekend and had dropped once again to the fourth place, one point behind the last Champions League spot with five matches to go.
That draw was the last match for Louis van Gaal in charge for the Bavarians and he is replaced with his former assistant Andries Jonker who will lead Bayern Munich until the end of this season.
What is even worse for Bayern Munich is that in this maybe decisive derby match, they will have to play without the winger Arjen Robben who made a really stupid act last weekend, as he had received a straight red card for the insults he shouted at the referee after the match was over. For that act he will have to miss the following two matches for Bayern Munich and was fined with fifteen thousand Euros as well. Hamit Altintop will be his replacement at the right wing position.
The defender Holger Badstuber will also have to sit out this match due to a five yellow cards suspension, so Diego Contento will take his position as a left back.
Daniel van Buyten is recovering from his hamstring injury, but he will probably be out of combination for this match as he still needs a week or two time before he fully returns to trainings.
Mario Gomez will be the only striker in the formation, with the help of Thomas Muller behind him and another small change in the formation is that Anatoliy Tymoshchuk will be back at his natural position as holding midfielder, so Luiz Gustavo should move back in the central defense.
Probable Bayern Munich line-up :
Lahm, Breno, Luiz Gustavo, Contento,
Tymoshchuk, Schweinsteiger,
Hamit Altintop, T. Muller, Ribery,
Gomez
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen are the team with the best form in the Bundesliga since January and are comfortably awaiting this match, as they have seven point lead over Bayern Munich at the table, but the series of good results saw them slowly getting closer to the table leaders Borussia Dortmund, so the difference of five points between them and Borussia Dortmund with five matches to go is not that big and they even can hope for the Bundesliga title if they can win all five remaining matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are currently in superb form with five straight winning matches, and they also have a very tight defense which had conceded just one goal (last weekend against St.Pauli) in all of those five matches.
Coach Jupp Heynckes have reasons to be satisfied because except for Manuel Friedrich who is still in recovery, he has full squad at his disposal ready to face Bayern Munich.
Michael Ballack is in great form recently and obviously his injury woes are finally over, so he will be the playmaker in the formation behind the striker Eren Derdiyok, and Sidney Sam and Renato Augusto will take their positions at the wings.
Probable Bayer Leverkusen line-up :
Castro, Schwaab, Reinartz, Kadlec ,
Vidal, Rolfes ,
Sam, Ballack, Renato Augusto,
Derdiyok
The Betting Verdict
The first match between these teams this season had ended in 1-1 draw. Interesting fact is that all of the last three matches between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen had ended in identical 1-1 draw.
Bayern Munich are the stronger home team with nine wins in the last ten matches (their only loss came from the table leaders Borussia Dortmund).
Also Bayern Munich have won nine of the last twelve matches against Bayer Leverkusen (three draws) and a stunning fact is that Bayer Leverkusen have not won a single match against Bayern in Munich in the last twenty years! The last 1-0 victory came way back in 1989.
This will be a cracking match to watch as Bayern Munich are under tremendous pressure to get the three points in the Champions League spot race, and Bayer Leverkusen are very, very close to Borussia Dortmund so they have a shot at the title as well and need to win all of their remaining fixtures as well.
Also Bayer Leverkusen coach Jupp Heynckes needs to quash the rumors that say that he will not bother to set up a good strategy for his team, as many are pointing that there is an obvious conflict of interests in his position. He is the next Bayern Munich coach starting from the end of this season, so if Bayer Leverkusen wins he may deny himself and his next team for Champions League football next season.
Having on mind the facts and the tradition i think that Bayern are the favorites here, but i also think that Bayer Leverkusen might get something out of this match as well. If Bayern Munich does not score in the first half an hour, as the match progresses the players will get increasingly frustrated which may lead to making mistakes that Bayer Leverkusen will know how to punish.
I would not go with a bet on straight winner here as anything can happen in this derby match where both teams have strong motivation to win it, but i would rather bet on both teams to score as i think that neither Bayern Munich nor Bayer Leverkusen will enter this match defensively minded. Both teams to score looks like a solid bet to me.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Bayern Munich-Bayer Leverkusen 2-2
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both teams to score in this match
