German Bundesliga
2011-05-07 - Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football ; Germany : Bundesliga
Weser Stadion
Saturday, 07th May 2011- kickoff 15:30
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen have put themselves in relegation trouble again by losing 1-0 to their fellow strugglers Vfl Wolfsburg last week, and now need one win in the remaining two matches (in the last round next weekend they will play against Kaiserslautern) so they can be perfectly safe in the Bundesliga.
Interestingly, last weekend`s match was 17th straight match in which Werder Bremen have conceded at least one goal, and the poor defensive line is probably one of the main reasons why Werder Bremen had struggled in the league this season.
For the match against Borussia Dortmund, the striker Sandro Wagner is back in the starting line up being paired with Claudio Pizarro up front. With Sandro Wagner in the starting line up, Werder Bremen went eight matches in a row unbeaten, so obviously he has a big impact in Werder Bremen`s game this season.
The midfielder Aaron Hunt has a back problems and will definitely miss this match, so Marko Marin will play as a playmaker behind the strikers.
Probable Werder Bremen line-up :
Fritz, Mertesacker, Pasanen, Silvestre,
Frings,
Wesley, Bargfrede,
Marin,
Wagner, Pizarro
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are the new German champions, they won their seventh league title by beating FC Nurnberg 2-0 at home last weekend, so they will enter this match pretty relaxed and in cheerful mood.
However, there are still some records to be set and to further mark this most successful season for the team, so coach Jurgen Klopp will field a strong formation, same that faced FC Nurnberg last weekend.
With eleven away wins this season, BVB have equaled the Bundesliga record in that category and if they win against Werder Bremen, they will become all time best. But negative fact is that in the last three away matches Borussia Dortmund could manage to take only one point.
Also, BVB have just 19 goals conceded this season and if they can manage to keep the number of goals conceded under 21 (which is Bayern Munich record from three seasons ago) they will become all time best team in that category as well.
Good team news is that there are no problems with injured or suspended players, so Borussia Dortmund will play in their standard 4-2-3-1 formation with Lucas Barrios as striker, Mario Gotze and Kevin Grosskreutz at the wings and the creative midfielder Robert Lewandowski in the middle.
Probable Borussia Dortmund line-up :
Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer,
S. Bender, da Silva,
M. Gotze, Lewandowski, Grosskreutz,
Barrios
The Betting Verdict
Werder Bremen really need the three points from this match, and although Borussia Dortmund have won the title, i think that they will take this match seriously and will not let to be pushed away.
Werder Bremen have the third worst defense in the league, and Borussia Dortmund have played amazing 14 matches in which they had not conceded a single goal, so they must be considered clear favorites in this match.
Also Werder Bremen are currently holding one very bad club record of seven straight home matches without a win, and they also had not won in any of the last five matches against Borussia Dortmund (two draws, three losses).
However, Werder Bremen are under big pressure and they will attack, but whether they are capable to win this match i am not that convinced. Borussia Dortmund will play their usual game and they might put a small show for the fans by keep attacking and scoring.
I expect this to be a quite entertaining match with at least one or two goals in each net, and although Werder Bremen label this match as a `must win’ and `match of the season`, i do not feel comfortable backing them as they have a miserable defense, and Borussia Dortmund have been superb this season in every category, so i do not think that they will give up that easily one week after winning the title.
Instead of picking a straight winner i would go with a bet on both teams to score as i think that is the most realistic outcome of this match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Werder Bremen 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (or 1-1)
