English Premier
2011-10-02 - Swansea vs Stoke City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 2nd October - Kickoff 3:00pm
Swansea
The Swans have made an ok start to their debut season in the Premiership with 5 points from a possible 18. It doesn't sound very good but the goal is to finish outside the bottom 3. Right now the club sits in 16th position and if they end the season there with 30 points they won't care, job done.
I always say the key to survival is the home form as most newly promoted sides struggle away from home. Well Swansea looks like the perfect example of this, with 3 away games played Swansea has lost all 3 scoring just once. With stats like that the Swans must get the job done at home and so far they are doing a good job.
Rodgers's side is unbeaten at the Liberty with a win and 2 draws in 3 games. Back to back 0-0's against Sunderland and Wigan were a concern to start the season but last time out they really put West Brom to the sword in a dominating 3-0 win. Overall the home fans have seen their club take 5 points from a possible 9 and are yet to concede. Statistically Swansea look a very decent side at home and one I'm seriously considering to back this weekend.
Team news is that Bodde, Tate, Agustien, Caulker, Beattie miss out with Britton a doubt for the game with a back problem. I don't think Britton will recover in time meaning Routledge will play in midfield. Elsewhere Graham is back and with Lita ineffective at Chelsea last time out he should get his place back. Other than that it's as you were with Sinclair the main threat going forward.
Predicted Swansea Lineup:
Vorm, Rangel, Monk, Williams, Taylor; Allen, Gower, Routledge; Dyer, Sinclair, Graham.
Stoke City
Despite carrying a heavy Europa League work load, Stoke has managed to get the job done domestically shooting up to 7th in the table. Having lost just once in 6 games the Potters have gained 9 points and look set for a big season.
I like Stoke and feel they get a rough ride as people only see their direct play and long throws. They miss the impressive closing down all over the pitch and incredible work rate rate that the side plays with. Having to play in the Europa League should take its toll on squad like Stoke's but Pulis doesn't really shuffle his pack. He likes to play his best side every game and in every game his players give him 100%.
Stoke as with most sides play their best stuff at home and have a win over Liverpool (1-0) whilst holding both Chelsea (0-0) and United (1-1) at the Britannia. The problem lies away from home but even there the record is ok with 4 points from a possible 9, suffering just 1 loss at Sunderland (4-0).
The loss came in their last away game and I blame that on playing in Kiev just 4 days earlier. This week they hosted Besiktas at home so the journey to Wales isn't a problem and fatigue whilst existent isn't that bad this time around.
In the other away games Pulis's men won at West Brom (1-0) and held Norwich (1-1) with Jones scoring an undeserved last minute leveler to deny the Canaries. I don't think Stoke will get that lucky in this game as Swansea is a tough place to visit this year. The home side will be going all out to beat Stoke and whilst the side is resilient all these games over 4 days will eventually catch up with them, starting on Sunday.
Team news is that Fuller, Higginbotham, Jones miss out with Diao and Sidibe doubts. Despite playing on Thursday all the stars will play in this one with Crouch being supporting by Walters. The midfield is settled with Pennant and Etherington creating the chances for the front 2. The back 4 is very strong and breaking them down could take some time as Woodgate and Shawcross have developed a very good partnership.
Predicted Stoke Lineup:
Begovic, Huth, Shawcross, Woodgate, Wilson; Delap, Whitehead, Etherington, Pennant, Walters; Crouch
The Betting Verdict
Swansea is unbeaten at home this season and looked really good in the win over West Brom. Stoke is a tougher nut to crack but having a weeks rest is ideal preparation as Stoke may suffer a post Europa League set back.
The worry is they don't score many goals but, 3 against WBA and then 1 at Chelsea convinces me they have enough to get at least 1 against Stoke.
Stoke was torn apart against Sunderland after playing in Kiev and whilst they were at home last Thursday the team must be a little fatigued. The team is mainly the same as that played on Thursday and this will play into the Swans hands.
I was expecting Swansea around 2.50 but to see 2.80 is massive and I think represents value. I'm going for the straight win but a more conservative play is Swansea on the Draw NO Bet. Home win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Swansea 1-0 Stoke City
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Swansea to win at 2.80
