TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING @ MINNESOTA WILD
Ice Hockey : North America : NHL
Monday, November 28th, 2011, 7:30PM US
(12:30AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Minnesota will look to bounce back tonight after back to back losses. The Wilds ddfence had been amazing until then, but they've been done 5-2 in their last 2, both at home, and they now play the last game of this 6 game homestand, and will want to put in a good performance against their opponents. Minnesota are 13-7-3 going into tonights game.

Tampa Bay have won their last 2 games, both against state rivals Florida. The Lightning are 11-9-2 for the season. I've been looking closely at Tampa Bays road form and it's not at all encouraging. Of their last 6 road games, only 2 have resulted in wins. Both came against Florida, and both needed the game to go beyond regulation. Hardly dominant play. The other 4 games, all losses, were comprehensive, losing by an average of 2.5 goals. Tampa Bay are 4-6-2 on the road this season, scoring just 2.5 goals but giving up 3.42 goals when travelling.

At home, the Wild are giving up just 2.23 goals per game and have a very impressive 8-4-0 record in front of their own fans. Between the pipes they will probably have Nicklas Backstrom, who looked rusty last night as he gave up a few goals early and then left the game. He has missed a few games due to the birth of his daughter but that bit of play yesterday will have been good warmup for this match. Backstrom actually owns a very decent record against Tampa Bay, going 4-1-1 with a tidy 1.80GAA.

The stats suggest that when Tampa Bay lose on the road, they lose heavily in regulation but that when it goes into OT they have a chance. I'm going to use this information to make sure we're betting with a decent reward on offer.

BETTING VERDICT

You could take Minnesota to win (including OT) but I feel the price on a regulation win is very tasty considering the situation. Minnesota are the better team, and despite the last 2 results they have the better defence.

Minnesota are on home ice, looking to make up for their last 2 heavy losses and this means we have a great bounceback situation with a strong team who bring a lot of motivation as they try to maintain their lead over Vancouver.

The Pick :

Minnesota Wild

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take the Minnesota Wild -0.5 (Regulation) @ 2.50 (Pinnacle)