IOWA STATE @ #16 KANSAS STATE
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, December 3rd, 2011, 12:30PM US
(5:30PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Kansas State are coming off a bye week here and stand at 9-2 for the season. Their opponents are the Iowa State Cyclones, who are 6-4. Both teams are bowl eligible with winning seasons. Kansas State are heavy favourites here, and I don't understand why.

It's true, Kansas State have dropped only 2 games all season, while picking up 6 wins as underdogs. The 2 games they lost were against top 10 teams, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. However, look at their wins. Only 2 of their 9 wins came by more than 7 points, against Kent State and Kansas!

There is simply no reason to expect enough motivation from Kansas State to beat Iowa State by 11 points here. They are not playing for anything but to end the season on a win and start preparing for the bowl game.

Now have a look at Iowa State. The Cyclones made a change at QB 5 weeks ago and it has paid dividends on the pitch. Since Jared Barnett took over as QB, Iowa State have gone 4-1 ATS and in that time have beaten Oklahoma State as 27 point underdogs and then covered the spread against Oklahoma last week.

That passing attack is complemented by a running game that is averaging almost 180 yards per game, giving them a nicely balanced attack. Unlike previous QB Steel Jantz, Barnett tends to run the ball himself when needed, mainly on 3rd down, which is a great quality to have in a QB. Just ask the Denver Broncos!

BETTING VERDICT

No motivation here for Kansas State to really hammer Iowa State, who will want to bounce back from last weeks loss against Oklahoma to try and pull off another big upset here at Kansas State, the way they did to Oklahoma State. Even if Kansas State are ahead by more than the number, there is always a chance for a garbage time score for a backdoor cover.

The spread is set at above 10, so the bet is well worth taking.

The Pick :

Iowa State +10.5

HANDICAP BETTING :

Take Iowa State +10.5 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)