Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

This is an AFC South clash between two teams that have had vastly contrasting seasons to what the expectation may have been before the season began. The Tennessee Titans (7-6) lost an important game last week but could still sneak into the Wild Card round of the Play Offs if they run the table, while the Indianapolis Colts (0-13) look to avoid a winless year and have bigger questions to answer in the near future when it comes to what they will do with the Number 1 Draft Pick.

Tennessee were beaten by New Orleans at home last week, but other results mean they are still in the thick of a Wild Card chase. They are beginning to get more out of Chris Johnson, while Jake Locker has shown glimpses of being a decent QB in his rookie season. The Colts continue to get blown out by teams, although they have surprised the spread backers by covering with meaningless TDs in the last 2 weeks.

Matt Hasselbeck was forced out of the game last week against the Saints, and Jake Locker did very well in relief, but the Titans are expected to back to Hasselbeck this week. The QB should have success against this Secondary that has been exposed since they have not been able to play with big leads as they have in recent seasons. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have not been the 'sack machines' of recent years as they have not been allowed to go after the QB as teams have been able to use the running game to good effect.

This is where Chris Johnson is expected to make things much easier for Hasselbeck as he is finally playing up to the level he should be considering the size of the contract he signed in the Summer. He did not play that well last week against the Saints, but I expect more from the running game against a Colts team that has struggled all year in Defense.

Indianapolis will continue starting Dan Orlovsky at QB, but he isn't much of a player at this level and he now has a tough match up against a Tennessee Secondary that has been playing better of late. The Colts have struggled to get things going consistently on Offense and it figures to be no different in this game.

I expect Orlovsky will also be handing off the ball to his backs to keep the chains moving as the Titans can struggle to stop the run, but this team is not very good and it is no surprise that they are yet to win a game.

Head to Head

Tennessee beat Indianapolis by 17 points at home earlier this season, covering the 9 point spread in the progress.

The Titans have actually won the last 3 games in the series against the spread.

Tennessee are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games in the series.

Indianapolis 4-9 against the spread this season, Tennessee are 7-6.

Other Interesting Trends

Indianapolis are 1-4 against the spread in the last 5 games as the home underdog.

Tennessee are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.

Prediction

I am going to take the Tennessee Titans to win and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, Indianapolis have been absolutely awful this season, and have been lucky to cover the spread in the last couple of weeks with last minute TDs.

Second, Tennessee have a very good record against the Colts recently and will enjoy beating up their Divisional rivals while pushing their own Play Off chances.

Third, the Colts could be pre-occupied with talk surrounding the future of Peyton Manning at this franchise and could lose sight of what is important to them right now.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Indianapolis Colts 17-27 Tennessee Titans

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Tennessee Titans -6.5 Points @ 1.95