Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders
United States: NFL Football Week 15
Sunday 18 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:05pm ET
9:05pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

This is what the final few weeks of the NFL regular season are all about as two teams come up against one another while very much in the mix for the race to the Play Offs. The Oakland Raiders (7-6) lost their lead in the AFC West, but remain involved in the Wild Card race and face the Detroit Lions (8-5) who are in control of their own destiny in the NFC Wild Card race.

The big question is how can Oakland bounce back from a really bad couple of weeks on the road when they were blown out by both the Miami Dolphins and the Green Bay Packers. Injuries have really hurt the receiving corps, while Darren McFadden remains on the sidelines.

Carson Palmer struggled in both losses but should be boosted by the return of Denarius Moore this week and that should give the QB a chance to attack a Detroit Secondary that has a couple of injuries and has begun to become susceptible to the big play. He should also be aided heavily by the Oakland running game which has been non-existent in the last couple of weeks as they fell into a hole early.

Michael Bush has been running the ball in place of McFadden and he has not disappointed in his efforts although not at his best in the last couple of weeks. The Lions allow 5.1 yards per carry as a Defense and they could find themselves bullied up front by the Raiders and we could see a really big game for Michael Bush. This should also allow Palmer to stay in short and manageable situations and once again attack the Secondary off play-action and going deep behind them.

Detroit just about escaped with a win over Minnesota last week when the referees missed a facemask call that would have given the Vikings a chance to score the go-ahead TD with seconds left on the clock. After a stunning start to the year, the Lions have struggled to maintain that level of form although still in control of their own destiny in the NFC.

Matt Stafford should be able to link up with his receiving corps to score points against the Raiders Defense, but he will need some protection from the Offensive Line that has been having a hard time this year. They face a Raiders team that has already secured 37 sacks on the season, and will need Kevin Smith to play and secure the running game to negate that.

Smith has played well since coming back to the Lions starting line up, although he has struggled to keep his fitness. He will be able to earn some yards for this team against a Defense that has allowed 5.2 yards per carry and will also make sure Stafford can have a chance to throw against the Secondary. If Smith can play the full game, he can at least help keep the Raiders honest on Defense and that in turn will help the Lions score points.

Head to Head

Detroit destroyed Oakland here by 15 points when they last met in 2007, a game that the Lions were actually considered the underdogs.

The Lions have won the last 2 games in the series, although they do not play regularly.

Oakland are 8-5 against the spread this season, Detroit are 6-6-1.

Other Interesting Trends

Oakland are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.

However, they are 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as the home underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.

Detroit are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

Prediction

I was a little confused to see the Oakland Raiders set as the underdogs in this game and I am going to back them to win for the following reasons:

First, Oakland lost a couple of road games in a row, but they were considered a dangerous Play Off team a couple of weeks ago and they should not be the underdog at home.

Second, Detroit won in a little lucky fashion last week, and they had lost 3 of 4 before that so I don't think I am ready to see them as favourites on the road at the moment.

Third, there are a couple of trends that favour the Raiders in this spot; (a)Teams that have lost back to back games by 14 points or more are 61-40 against the spread at home in their next game, (b) A team who lost by at least 28 points is 57-31 against the spread if they are considered the underdog in the next game.

Fourth, Oakland should have some of their receiving corps back that should allow Carson Palmer to return to the form he had been showing for a little while after coming to the Raiders.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Oakland Raiders 27-24 Detroit Lions

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Oakland Raiders @ 2.00