Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Saturday 24 December 2011 - Kick Off 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

I want to say this before I go any further- these teams could have vastly different expectations on their shoulders depending how the New York Giants @ New York Jets finishes in the earlier kick off; if the Giants have won, the Eagles will be out of the Play Offs and may lose some impetus, while a Jets win will mean Dallas will make the Play Offs with a win over the Giants in Week 17 and so the Cowboys could suffer a mental letdown.

The Dallas Cowboys (8-6) control their own destiny knowing a couple of wins in the final 2 weeks of the season would see them make the Play Offs. However, this is the time of the season when they have fallen apart in previous seasons and a couple of defeats to the Cardinals and Giants made it seem it was going to happen again although they did beat Tampa Bay easily last week.

After all the talk of being a potential SuperBowl winner, and then being tagged as the 'Dream Team' by Vince Young, the Philadelphia Eagles (6-8) looked set to miss the Play Offs, but recent results mean they are still in the race to win the NFC East. The Eagles have to win their last 2 games and hope the Jets beat the Giants this week, and then the Giants beat the Cowboys in Week 17.

The return of Michael Vick has seen the team win back to back games to stay alive in the Play Offs, and both wins have been in impressive fashion. It is clear that they are playing hard for Andy Reid who is in danger of losing his Head Coach role, and they should be focused on putting the breaks on a Divisional rival.

Vick has not played to the level of last season and has made too many mistakes behind a porous Offensive Line. He has not been helped by bad play-calling, but that is not the reason for his 13 TD passes and 13 Interceptions. Dallas have an effective pass rush and, although the Eagles have gained some big numbers through the air, I expect Philadelphia will try and make use of their running game to keep the pressure off of Vick.

While Vick is getting all the attention in the last couple of seasons, the best player in Philadelphia is LeSean McCoy who has proved to be effective both on the ground and in the check down position coming out of the backfield. He hammered Dallas when the teams met in Philadelphia earlier this season, and he should be able to have another big day as Dallas have struggled against the run in recent weeks. The key for the Eagles is to make sure McCoy gets plenty of touches of the ball as he can go off against this Defense.

With Philadelphia moving the chains, Dallas are likely going to have to try and keep up. The Cowboys are going to hand the ball off to Felix Jones and Stephen Morris to try and take advantage of the Eagles problems in stopping the run that they have had for large parts of this season. Jones ran the ball very well against Tampa Bay so he should be able to move the chains and keep the Offense in short and manageable situations.

I would expect Tony Romo to have a better game than when the teams met earlier this season, although the Offensive Line is still having their issues. Philadelphia's front 4 can cause plenty of problems in the backfield for opposition teams, but Romo should be able to hit quick passes if the running game is working and thus negating Justin Babin and Cullen Jenkins. The Eagles much vaunted Secondary have not performed to the level expected of them, although they did restrict Dallas earlier this season once they took a big lead and made the Cowboys a little one-dimensional.

Head to Head

Dallas have lost 2 of their last 3 games against the Eagles, but they had won 5 in a row against the spread before losing at Philadelphia by 27 points when set as the 3 point underdogs.

Philadelphia won on their last visit to Dallas, although they had lost 3 in a row on the road before that.

Dallas have won the last 3 home games against the spread in the series.

Dallas are 5-8-1 against the spread this season, Philadelphia are 6-8.

Other Interesting Trends

Dallas are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as the home favourite.

They have lost their last 4 games against the spread against Divisional rivals.

Philadelphia are 37-18 against the spread in their last 55 road games as the underdog.

They are 15-6 against the spread in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record at home.

Prediction

I am going to take the points here and back the Philadelphia Eagles for the following reasons:

First, I think the Eagles are playing really hard for Andy Reid at the moment and they have looked good in the last couple of weeks since Michael Vick returned to the starting line up.

Second, Dallas might be looking ahead knowing they have to just beat the New York Giants to make sure they make it into the Play Offs and they could possibly overlook this one.

Third, the Cowboys have not been playing that well of late: take away the win over an awful Tampa Bay team, and they have lost to the Giants, Arizona, while barely getting by Miami, Seattle and Washington.


I would perhaps recommend keeping an eye on the Giants-Jets game from the 1pm starts as a win for the Giants ends the Eagles hopes of making the post-season. I still think the Eagles will play hard, but some of you guys may want to hold off with motivation potentially an issue.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Dallas Cowboys 24-27 Philadelphia Eagles

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Philadelphia Eagles +2 Points @ 1.95