Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
United States: NFL Football Week 16
Sunday 25 December 2011 - Kick Off 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)

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Preview

I would just like to begin this by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and I hope Santa brought you all of your wishes this year.

Now on to the serious business of a NFC North clash between the previously unbeaten Green Bay Packers (13-1) and the limping Chicago Bears (7-7).

The Packers were finally beaten for the first time last week at the Kansas City Chiefs and there has to be some concern at how the reigning Champions were unable to stop the Chiefs having their way with them, either through the air or on the ground. The Packers also need to wrap up the Number 1 seed in the NFC and will accomplish that with a win here, so I don't foresee them resting their starters until Week 17 or unless they are blowing out the Bears.

Chicago actually looked like being a genuine threat to the Packers as they went on a 4 game winning run, but disaster struck in their final win when Jay Cutler damaged his thumb to such an extent that he was ruled out for the rest of the season. This has coincided with a 4 game losing run as Caleb Hanie struggled at QB, and the Bears problems only were doubled as Matt Forte was knocked out of a game against Kansas City.

That all means the Bears are looking in from the outside when it comes to the Play Offs, needing to win their last 2 games and hoping beyond hope that the Atlanta Falcons or the Detroit Lions drop both of their final games. There is also a change this week behind Center as Josh McCown makes his first start since 2007, although rumours suggested he had looked terrible in practice.

The Bears did have the statistics to suggest they could at least trouble the Packers as their Offense was gaining plenty of yards on the ground, while Jay Cutler is accurate enough to expose a porous Green Bay Secondary. I don't feel so comfortable in thinking Marion Barber and Josh McCown can have the same type of impact in the game, especially against a Packers Defense that will want to make a point with Dom Capers as Defensive Co-Ordinator.

The Packers do give up a lot of yards through the air, but they have some real ball-hawking playmakers back there and McCown could have a few issues moving the ball if Barber is unable to keep the Packers honest in the running game. I expect Barber will be able to move the chains at times in this game, but I would also imagine Capers has devised a scheme whereby stopping the run will be the primary objective and daring McCown to have a go at the Secondary.

McCown may make some plays though as he does have a speedy receiving corps, but that has been decimated by the loss of Jonny Knox for the season and he may have to take more risks and thus turn the ball over more often.

It will be through the much vaunted Chicago Defense that the Bears will be able to keep this game close, if they are going to do so at all. It will be down to Aaron Rodgers to have a rebound week if he wants to hurt a Chicago Secondary that has had its problems this season, although it won't be as easy as people may initially expect.

Rodgers is playing behind a beat up Offensive Line and he will have pressure in his face as the Chicago team generate an effective pass rush. That means his receivers will have to play better than they did against Kansas City last week in the absence of Greg Jennings, but I think they will get things going a little more. There are still plenty of options for Rodgers, although the receivers will have to play their part by beating potential man-to-man coverage, an area they struggled against last week.

The Packers will need Rodgers too as they have struggled to run the ball with any sort of consistency, while the Bears are stopping the run better than at any time during this year. In the last 5 weeks, Chicago have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry on the ground, so Ryan Grant and James Starks figure to have tough games.

Head to Head

Green Bay beat Chicago at Soldier Field by 10 points earlier this season, covering the 4 point spread although they did get away with a totally bogus call that would have allowed the Bears to close within 3 and an onside kick to come.

Green Bay have won the last 3 games at Lambeau Field against the Bears, although they are 2-1 against the spread in those games.

Last season, the Bears lost here by 7 points in a game where they rested their starters and one the Packers had to win to get into the Play Offs. Green Bay were 11 point favourites in that game.

Green Bay are 6-2 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series.

Green Bay are 9-5 against the spread this season, Chicago are 7-7.

Other Interesting Trends

Green Bay are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.

They have won their last 8 games against the spread when they have failed to cover the spread in the previous game.

The Pack are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games at home.

Chicago are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the road underdog of 10.5 points or more.

They are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Prediction

I am going to back the Green Bay Packers to lock up the Number 1 seed with plenty of style this week for the following reasons:

First, the Packers will have been hurt by all the nay-sayers during the week who have said the Defense is not good enough to repeat as SuperBowl Champions, and I expect they will be fired up for the Christmas Day game.

Second, Green Bay have a very good recent record against the Bears, a team that will be starting a QB that has not played since 2007 as a starter.

Third, I just don't trust Josh McCown not to make the mistakes that will lead to a Green Bay cover... He apparently had looked horrific in practice and it is only down to Caleb Hanie's obvious struggles that a change has been made.

Fourth, Chicago may be a little flat after a big loss at home to Seattle that has effectively ended their chances of making it back to the Play Offs and could be feeling a little sorry for themselves.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Green Bay Packers 27-10 Chicago Bears

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Green Bay Packers -12 Points @ 1.95