NCAA Football
2011-12-29 - Notre Dame at Florida State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Thursday, December 29th, 2011, 5:30PM US
(10:30PM GMT)
PREVIEW
Both Notre Dame and Florida State come into the Citrus Bowl with 8-4 records from their regular season games but these two finished their seasons in very different manners.
The Florida State Seminoles started badly, going 2-3 in their early games, but then reeled off 6 wins in their next 7 matches, with the only loss coming by 1 point. That means 2nd year head coach Jimbo Fisher will lead his team to a national best 30th consecutive Bowl game. The last time they were in this Bowl game, back in 2008, they crushed Wisconsin 42-13. It helps that it is played in Orlando, which means the support for the 'Noles will be massive.
Notre Dame, led by coach Brian Kelly, also in his 2nd season in the role. His team had 4 straight wins before getting beaten by Stanford in the final game, 28-14. They have a poor record against Florida State, with the 'Noles crushing them 37-0 in the last meeting, in 2003.
Notre Dame QB Tommy Rees should play this one, and his 65% completion rate and 19:12 TD:INT ratio look good. But then Florida State QB EJ Manuel has the same completion rate and has a 16:8 TD:INT ratio. The problem for Notre Dame is they have to get it done in Florida against the 4th best defence in the nation, giving up just 15 points per game!
Notre Dame are giving up 21 points per game, while scoring 30.5 per game. Florida State are scoring 31.7 a game. Notre Dame will have to try and get this done through the air too, as Florida State are allowing just 2.3 yards per carry, so you can forget rushing against this lot.
BETTING VERDICT
The spread is -3 points to take the Seminoles but the price has dropped to 1.87. The price on the straight win is 1.65 so it makes more sense to just take that and cheer on Florida State to simply beat the Fighting Irish.
The Pick :
Florida State to win and cover
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Florida State to win @ 1.65 (Pinnacle)
