NCAA Football
2011-12-31 - Virginia Cavaliers at Auburn Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, December 31st, 2011, 7:30PM US
(12:30AM GMT)
PREVIEW
Virginia finished the regular season 8-4 while Auburn were 7-5 and you can see how they've slipped following their National Title win last season. QB Cam Newton has not been replaced, as we've seen Barrett Trotter, then Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier take snaps. That does not look solid enough for me here against a Virginia defence that is solid and ranked 29th, giving up just over 340 yards per game.
The big blow for Auburn here is the suspension of RB Michael Dyer. Dyer has 1,242 yards and 10 TDs on the ground for the Tigers and his suspension means the ground game, and Auburn's overall offence, become a lot less potent. There are others who will be missed here, though not on the pitch. Auburn have lost both their offensive and defensive co-ordinators since the end of the regular season, with both men taking positions in different schools.
Virginia bring a lot of motivation here, as they are competing in their first Bowl game since 2007 and will be hoping for a first Bowl game win since 2005! QB Michael Rocco has been completing over 60% of his passes for 2,359 yards but has 11 interceptions to go with his 11 TDs, thanks to that 38-0 loss against Virginia Tech where he was picked off twice. I expect him to play a lot better, but Virginia have other weapons here against Auburn.
The Cavaliers have a decent running game to use against Auburn, and they have been gaining 165 yards per game on the ground to go with the 232 they have gained on average through the air. Kevin Parks and Perry Jones should have a lot of success against a terrible Auburn rush defence that is giving up close to 200 yards on the ground per game.
BETTING VERDICT
Virginia are dogs for this game, which is not how I have this game. The spread has actually moved further, from Virginia +1 to +3 and I think I have to get involved now as I see the Cavs winning this outright.
The Pick :
Virginia +3
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Virginia +3 @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
