Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
United States: NFL Divisional Round
Sunday 15 January 2012 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Preview

Either one of these teams will be visiting New England next week for the AFC Championship Game, but this will be a tough game for both the Baltimore Ravens (12-4) and the Houston Texans (11-6) as both are physical teams that are happy to beat up opponents with their running games.

Baltimore earned the Number 2 spot in the AFC during the regular season and that means they get to host the Texans for a second time this season. The Ravens have not lost at home this season and I expect they will be able to move the chains against this tough Defense as long as Cam Cameron doesn't decide to skip the play book and randomly call in plays to the Offense.

The best player on the Offensive side of the ball for the Ravens is Ray Rice and Baltimore have to get the ball in his hands often if they want to make this easier for themselves. Rice should be able to find some holes in the Texans Defensive Line that will allow him to keep the Offense in short and manageable situations while also opening up the play-action pass for the downfield threat provided by Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin.

Rice had over 160 total yards of Offense in a win over the Texans earlier this season and he has to be given the ball to keep things ticking over. The jury is still out on Joe Flacco at the QB position, but he should be able to make enough plays to keep the ball moving if Rice is running effectively. Flacco had a big game against this solid pass Defense earlier this season, but the Offense has to keep them off-balance by using Rice as much as possible.

The last time the teams met, Houston still had Matt Schaub throwing the ball and it will be difficult for TJ Yates if the Texans fall too far behind early. Baltimore's Defense is known for being stingy against the pass and Ray Lewis should be back to full health which will make life difficult for the rookie QB. I still expect Andre Johnson will make a couple of big catches, but he did not look at 100% last week against Cincinnati and I don't expect a huge game from the star receiver.

That means the Texans will once again lean on Arian Foster and Ben Tate to try and keep the chains moving. They face a tough match up against a Ravens team that allowed just 3.5 yards per carry this season on the ground. If they cannot keep the Offense in short and manageable situations, this could be a long day for the young QB who was fortunate to get away with at least 2 bad throws against Cincinnati last week. With Ed Reed ball-hawking in the Secondary, turnovers could be devastating for the Texans this week.

Head to Head

Baltimore beat Houston by 15 points at home earlier this season, covering the 7 point spread as the underdog.

The Ravens have won all 5 previous meetings against the Texans, going 4-1 against the spread in those games.

Baltimore are 8-7-1 against the spread this season, Houston are 10-5-2.

Baltimore are 7-7-1 against the spread as the favourites, Houston are 4-2 as the underdog.

Other Interesting Trends

Baltimore are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 Play Off games as the favourite.

Houston are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.

Prediction

I am going to back the Baltimore Ravens to win this game and cover the big spread for the following reasons:

First, Baltimore should have confidence from the first game as they restricted Houston to 15 points with their starting QB and now face a rookie. The Ravens also put up the second most points against this Defense this season in that win.

Second, Houston will not have the success running the ball as last week and force TJ Yates to make some plays- Baltimore are not going to be as kind dropping easy picks as the Bengals were last week.

Third, teams that have won by 21 points or more in the Play Offs are just 3-8 against the spread in their next game.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Baltimore Ravens 28-13 Houston Texans

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

I'll back the Baltimore Ravens -7.5 Points @ 1.95