Novara v Milan
Football: Seria A
Venue: Stadio Silvio Piola, Novara
Sunday 22th January – Kickoff time: 15:00 GMT+1

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Novara(20th W-2 D-6 L-10)

Novara came close to an upset against their today’s guests in the midweek, taking the Coppa Italia match into the extra time thanks to a late equalizer by Ivan Radovanovic.

Pato scored the extra-time winner for Milan and secured a last eight clash in the competition for his team, but he Novara won’t have to worry about him anymore, as he picked up a thigh strain.

Novara is in a desperate situation in the league, only collecting 12 points so far and avoiding relegation seems like an impossible mission at this point. In the previous stage they lost an important match against Cesena, a direct opponent in the battle of avoiding relegation.

Attilio Tesser’s team is yet to keep a clean sheet this season, having conceded a total of 35 goals and at least two in each of their last four games.

Defenders Massimo Paci and Poli Dellafiore will be serving a suspension, while Carlalberto Ludi, Alex Pinari and Andrea Lisuzzo are all doubtful ahead of this game.

Probable Novara line-up :

Ujkani
Rinaudo, Centurioni, Garcia
Morganella, Jensen, Radovanovic, Gemiti
Rigoni
Caracciolo, Mascara

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Milan(2nd W-11 D-4 L-3)

As Juventus won their yesterday’s game in Bergamo, Milan will have to collect all three points here to keep the difference minimum, but with all that injuries it won’t be the easiest of jobs.

Alexandro Pato and Kevin-Prince Boateng have both been sidelined for a month due to some recent injuries and they joined a list that also contains Christian Abbiati, Mathieu Flamini, Antonio Cassano, Mario Yepes, Gennare Gattuso, and Alberto Aquilani. Another bad news for Milan’s supporters is that Alessandro Nesta is supended, but he’ll be replaced with Mexes.

Massimiliano Allegri decided to call back Alexander Merkel and Rodney Strasser who have been on loan from Genoa and Lecce respectively, but it’s unlikely to see any of the two from the first minute in this match.

Milan’s loss to Inter last weekend ended a positive run of 12 matches without a defeat, also being their first loss at home.

Probable Milan line-up :

Amelia
Abate, Mexes, Thiago Silva, Antonini
Ambrosini, Van Bommel, Nocerino
Seedorf
Ibrahimovic, Robinho

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The Betting Verdict

Despite all those injuries Milan’s line-up is still competitive and would be competitive against any team from Seria A, especially bottom placed Novara.

However, I think that letting Andrea Pirlo go was a mistake from Milan, as they showed in the defeat against Inter last weekend that they don’t quite have a man in the midfield that can send a decisive pass and despite having a solid possession they struggle when it’s about to create chances.

They do have Ibrahimovic though, the striker who already scored 12 goals this season and managed to net in their last three games on the road.

As the spreadsheet points out there is not much value backing Milan for a plain win, so I suggest trying Milan to win HT/FT, as they scored in the first half of three of their last four games on the road, winning three of them with the same score (0-2).

The Statistics :

The Pick :

Novara 0-2 Milan

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take AC Milan to win HT/FT at 2.10 Bet365
Confidence: 7/10