English League One
2012-09-29 - Stevenage vs Bury
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English League One
Saturday 29 September 2012 - Kick Off 3pm
Stevenage
After making the Play Offs last season and surprising most of the pundits, not many felt comfortable backing Stevenage to repeat those feats. I don't think Stevenage think they will make the Play Offs either... If their start is anything to go by, automatic promotion may just be a possibility for them.
Stevenage are 3rd in the League One table and they have picked up 16 points so far this season while remaining unbeaten. Surprisingly it is their away form that is keeping them near the top of the table as Stevenage are just 1-3-0 at home, scoring 7 goals and conceding 5.
The side are unbeaten in 4 games in all competitions going back to a Football League Trophy loss to Dagenham & Redbridge and they have won 2 games in that run of 4 games. Stevenage also recorded their first home win in the League against Walsall in their last home game. Stevenage are unbeaten in 16 home games in the League, although they have drawn 10 of those games.
Anthony Iro could make his debut for Stevenage in this game, while a number of their players need late fitness tests.
Bury
There would have been many fans thinking this could be another tough fight against relegation for Bury this season following a comfortable survival last season, but not many would have seen this start coming. It has got so bad that Kevin Blackwell has been appointed as the new manager to turn things around at Gigg Lane.
Bury have 3 points and a minus 10 goal difference and that leaves them bottom of the League One table as they continue to search for their first League win. Bury are 0-2-2 away from home, scoring 4 goals and conceding 8 in those games and the side need a win before they start getting cut off at the bottom of the table.
The side have tasted defeat in 4 of their last 5 League games and they come into this one off the back of a 3-0 loss at Tranmere and then a 1-4 home loss to the MK Dons. The loss at Tranmere snapped a run of 2 draws away from home for Bury and the side have 1 win in their last 15 away games in League One. The side have conceded at least 2 goals in 12 of their last 15 away games.
Head to Head
Stevenage beat Bury 3-0 here last season as both were newly promoted sides from League Two.
The season before was their first meeting at Stevenage and ended 3-3.
Bury actually lost both games to Stevenage last season.
Prediction
It was around three weeks ago when I backed Sheffield United on the Asian Handicap to beat Bury, but that was one of the games where Bury failed to concede at least 2 goals away from home and they earned a draw in the game.
This time it is Stevenage that are the short favourites, but I don't want to back against a Bury side that could be rejuvenated by the arrival of Kevin Blackwell and we have all seen what a new manager can do for a teams morale.
Instead, I am going to back over 2.5 goals at 1.90 being offered by Pinnacle and that looks remarkably generous.
All 4 previous meetings between Stevenage and Bury have seen at least 3 goals scored in the games and Bury's away defence has been poor to say the least.
I know Bury failed to score at Tranmere but that only represents the third away game in 13 that they haven't found the back of the net, while Stevenage could cover the 3 goals needed by themselves if required.
Stevenage haven't had a home clean sheet this season and even conceded 2 when drawing against Crewe here so the overs looks like it has plenty of legs in it from this game.
The Pick :
Stevenage 3-1 Bury
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90
