English Premier
2013-03-16 - Swansea vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : English : Premier League
Saturday 16th March - Kickoff 3:00pm
Swansea
Swansea lost 2-1 at West Brom last weekend after a perfectly legitimate goal was incorrectly ruled out for offside. The defeat leaves them in 9th place and they trail the top 6 by 5 points.
Laudrup's side enter the game having recently won the Capital One Cup and confidence couldn't be higher. However, the league form is somewhat sketchy to say the least L-W-L-W-L, hopefully that's an omen for a home win on Saturday.
At home Swansea have won 3 straight league games and are unbeaten in 5 at the Liberty Stadium. The only side to win here in 11 is bizarrely Norwich in 3-4 shootout as Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have tried but failed to beat Swansea.
The 1-0 win over Newcastle last time out is the first home clean sheet in 6 games. At the other end Swansea has scored in 7 straight netting 2 or more in 3 of the last 4. 6 of the last 7 Swansea home games have ended with both sides scoring as the hosts are happy to attack leaving space in behind on the counter.
Arsenal
Arsenal lost their last league game at Tottenham (2-1) a the weekend and at the time of writing are hours away from a huge European Cup game against Bayern.
Wenger's side were 5 unbeaten before the visit to Spurs winning 4. The loss is a big setback as Arsenal trail the top 4 by 5 points and having to play in Munich as well as some injuries won't help them on Saturday.
Away from home 2 losses in the last 3 is a poor run of form for a side in the top 5. Both defeats have come to their top 4 rivals Chelsea and Tottenham in recent weeks and this might ultimately cost them come May.
Arsenal has scored in 7 straight away league games but just a single goal in 5 straight now. At the other end 1 clean sheet in 4 is a concern given their lack of away goals in recent weeks but only Chelsea and Arsenal as scored 2 or more in the last 5 away games.
Betting Verdict
Arsenal are as short as 11/10 to win this really tough away game and I'm happy to lay the visitors. Arsenal are without some key players including their best player Wilshere and have had to endure a tough game at Bayern in the midweek as well whilst Swansea have been resting.
The hosts have won 3 straight league games and are unbeaten in 5 at home. Compare that to 2 losses in 3 away games and 1 win in 4 on their travels, I'm happy to oppose Arsenal.
Swansea have scored in 7 straight and likewise Arsenal's run of 7 straight away games scoring suggests we could see a 1-1 draw. The hosts will be at full strength and I see them as the most likely victor in this one given Arsenal hasn't scored 2 or more away goals in 5 league games.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Swansea 2-1 Arsenal
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Swansea +1/4 AH at 1.97 at Pinnacle Sportsbook
