NFL Football

2025-01-11 - Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
United States : NFL Playoff Wild Card Game
Saturday 11th January 2025 - Scheduled 8pm
1am (British Time)

Preview

Winning the second game of the regular season between these old AFC North rivals helped the Baltimore Ravens (12-5) ride the momentum into the Playoffs as the Number 3 Seed.

However, that means facing up to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) one more time having split the two regular season meetings and this time with a spot in the Divisional Round on the line.

The Ravens will be playing with confidence having won four games in a row, and things could not be much different for those in Pittsburgh colours having lost their last four regular season games to not only lose their grip on the Division, but to finish as the Number 6 Seed and have this tougher road game on Saturday night as Wild Card Weekend begins.

Mike Tomlin and the Steelers would have been really happy with the veteran leadership that Russell Wilson had given the team at Quarter Back after taking over from Justin Fields and moving into a 10-3 position gave the entire organisation confidence. However, Wilson and the rest of the Offensive unit have hit a massive slump and they have not been able to score more than 17 points in any of their last four games, which has ramped up the pressure on the Defensive unit.

More is going to be needed and some are even suggesting that Justin Fields should be given more snaps behind Center to offer something different for the Steelers who were beaten by 17 points in this Stadium just last month.

The final score is hard to ignore, but the game was competitive until a Russell Wilson Fumble when looking like he was going in for a Touchdown. Later on it was followed by a Pick Six, and George Pickens is also back in the Steelers lineup to offer more support.

It certainly gives you pause for thought when it comes to this very big spread in a game featuring two rivals that have tended to play each other very competitively down the years.

Russell Wilson will need to be better as he faces an improved Baltimore Defensive unit and one that is determined to offer all of the support the team needs to finally have a big impact in the post-season for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in 2012. That might be harsh considering the Ravens played in the AFC Championship Game last season, but they only managed 10 points in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs at home and that will have stung.

The road team will want to run the ball to set up the pass, but it has been a season-long challenge for opponents to really establish the run against this Baltimore Defensive Line. The Ravens remain strong up front and they will certainly feel they can clamp down on Pittsburgh here and force Russell Wilson to try and beat them with his arm.

Earlier this season there were holes in the Ravens Secondary to exploit, but some changes have been made to the starting personnel and Baltimore have responded with some strong performances. The pass rush pressure that has been generated certainly helps the Defensive Backs and Russell Wilson will do well to find a clean pocket if he is stuck in obvious passing situations behind this Steelers Offensive Line.

There has not been a lot of consistency from the veteran Quarter Back in recent games and that has to change if Pittsburgh are going to have an opportunity to keep this one competitive, never mind actually winning.

Pressure is on Wilson to produce, but the same can be said for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Offensive unit after another strong regular season. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Jackson has not been able to replicate that level in the Playoffs and just two career post-season wins is not good enough for someone who is considered one of the stars in the League.

He has lost both games he has started in night spots in the Playoffs, which adds to the pressure that will be on his shoulders, but Lamar Jackson is playing a team he is familiar with and that will help. The Steelers have long given him problems, but having Derrick Henry in the backfield with Jackson is a big help and the Ravens are expected to pound the rock with a lot more success than the Steelers.

Derrick Henry had a big game in the win last month and the Steelers Defensive Line has looked a little worn out through this losing run with teams happy to run the clock against them. Now they face a tough Baltimore Offensive Line that will bully teams up front and the threat of Henry may open up more rushing lanes for Lamar Jackson than he usually expects to have against Pittsburgh.

No Zay Flowers is a blow for the Ravens, but Lamar Jackson should be given time to make his reads down the field and there are still enough playmakers that can spark the passing game too. Much like the Defensive Line, the Pittsburgh Secondary have been asked to do too much in this four game losing run and that has seen them giving up more yards than they would like.

There is no hiding from the fact that Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens have something to prove in this Playoff run, but the Offensive balance should give them a chance to make a very strong start.

You also cannot ignore the size of the spread and the underdog has a 25-9-3 record against the spread when Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh have faced John Harbaugh's Baltimore. However, in the three Playoff meetings with these Head Coaches at the helm, the favourite is 2-1 against the spread and Baltimore did cover as the home favourite when they met in December in the regular season.

We know Mike Tomlin has a strong record when he is the Head Coach of an underdog Pittsburgh, but his numbers are only 7-9-1 against the spread when his team is given 7 points or more. In the last two Playoff runs, Pittsburgh have been given at least 9 points as the underdog against Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and been blown out both times.

Add in the fact that home favourites asked to lay at least 7.5 points are 14-4 against the spread in the Wild Card Round of the post-season since 2005, a number that becomes 14-1 against the spread when the spread is at least 9.5 points.

Lamar Jackson has overseen strong performances after big Offensive outings for his team, while he might just have the more balanced team on both sides of the ball which can help the Baltimore Ravens have too much all around for their old rival in this one.