Champions League
2025-03-12 - Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: UEFA Champions League Last 16 Second Leg
Wednesday 12th March 2025 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
Atletico Madrid
They needed a special goal to level the Champions League Last 16 First Leg, but Atletico Madrid may be a touch frustrated that they were beaten by rivals Real Madrid. However, the 2-1 deficit is far from a decisive one and it is Diego Simeone's men who will have the home backing when the Second Leg is played in the Spanish capital.
A defeat this past weekend has just left Atletico Madrid chasing their main rivals in the Spanish Primera Division, but they can put a big week in the books both at home and in Europe before the March international break. The narrow defeat in the First Leg last week will not have discouraged Atletico Madrid who have won 8 of their last 9 home Champions League games.
Atletico Madrid have lost consecutive fixtures by the same 2-1 scoreline, much to the frustration of the manager and the squad. The side are unbeaten in 12 home games in all competitions and Atletico Madrid have won 10 of those fixtures.
Koke is a doubt for the home team, but the squad is looking otherwise pretty healthy.
Real Madrid
The history with the Champions League/European Cup makes Real Madrid amongst the favourites every time they compete for this trophy. The defending European Champions may have hoped for an easier Last 16 tie than against their City rivals and Carlo Ancelotti will be well aware that this tie is far from over after the narrow win at home.
A slow start in the Champions League Group Stage meant Real Madrid had to go through the Play Off Round of the Knock Out ties, but the team have momentum with 6 straight wins in the competition. The side have not only won 3 away Champions League games in a row, but Real Madrid have scored three times in each of those victories.
Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions having gotten the better of Rayo Vallecano this past weekend. They had been unbeaten in 4 away games in all competitions and Real Madrid had won 3 of those fixtures, but the most recent away game ended in a 2-1 loss at Real Betis.
Jude Bellingham is back from suspension and Carlo Ancelotti rested several key players in the win this past weekend.
Head to Head
Both League meetings between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid ended 1-1 before the 2-1 win for Real in the First Leg of this Champions League tie last week.
Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in 3 at home against Real Madrid, but 2 of those matches have ended in draws.
Prediction
The First Leg was competitive and tight as anticipated, but Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid both have special players capable of scoring special goals.
That was the case in the First Leg to reach three goals in total, but the underlying numbers suggest that clear chances were hard to find.
It should be more of the same with the tie finely balanced, although the game state could change considerably if Real Madrid were to score the first goal. This would mean Atletico Madrid are chasing two goals, which could leave them vulnerable to the counter attack from a very fearsome set of players that Real Madrid have in the final third.
However, Diego Simeone may be aware of that and that could mean Atletico Madrid are looking to stay solid, while Real Madrid are a team that will be patient with the lead in their hands.
Games between these two top rivals have been tight and competitive in recent times and there is a feeling that the Second Leg is going to be cautious.
Of course you cannot discount the fact that top talents may score goals out of nothing as they did last week, but the feeling is that the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing fewer than three goals scored. This was a similar feeling to last week, but the underlying numbers suggested that the game was one that did not have too many big chances and this time it could be lower scoring on the scoreboard.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atletico Madrid 1-1 Real Madrid
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.20 with SportBet.One
