Italian Serie A
2026-01-12 - Juventus vs Cremonese
A Sports Betting Pick by Cafa
Italy Serie A - Round 20
Allianz Stadium, Torino, Piedmont, Italy (41,507)
Monday, 12 January 2026, 20:45 CET
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Juventus Team News
Despite an occasional setback and despite still not having a fully operational centre-forward, or any creative players that are not Kenan Yildiz, Juventus is clearly in a winning streak since Luciano Spalletti arrived. That's what he does -- he hid the weaknesses and emphasized the positives. In this league, that's enough to do well.
Juventus is still in some conversations regarding scudetto candidates although Inter, Milan and Napoli are most often mentioned as the main three. To keep up with the Joneses, Juventus must win here and join the group of teams that have 39 or 40 points, that are currently occupying the Champions League spots.
Cremonese Team News
It's understandable that a team like Cremonese, as good as their game plan is, starts getting worse results as they don't have a plan B and everyone can plainly see exactly how they play. And copy the tactics that worked for someone else.
Cremonese will certainly be happy with their five wins so far, 22 points, a barely negative goal difference and a 13th spot on the table. But this is still a relegation candidate that will slip down to the relegation zone unless they keep it up with a win here and there every three or four rounds. They haven't had one in five now.
Of course Cremonese will try to do some giant killing here; beating Juventus is a huge motive, but there seems to be a correlation between being in mid-table in Serie A and entering a streak of poor results. Cremonese is 8 points above the relegation zone so there's no direct threat, and on the other hand they know they can't reach Europe.
Probable Lineups
Juventus (4-2-3-1): Di Gregorio - Kalulu, Bremer, Koopmeiners, Cambiaso - Locatelli, Thuram - McKennie, Miretti, Yildiz - David. Coach Spalletti.
Cremonese (3-5-2): Audero - F.Terracciano, Baschirotto, Bianchetti - Barbieri, Zerbin, Grassi, Johnsen, Pezzella - Vardy, Bonazzoli. Coach Nicola.
Jonathan David will again get the nod. He's the current project at Juventus, they're trying to adapt him to this league and to this team, and make him a star of Serie A. It hasn't gone well so far but who's to say it won't, eventually? The Haitian born in New York who plays for Canada arrived on a free transfer and is still only 26. He could be the bargain of the decade if he finds where he hid his goalscoring boots.
The Betting Market
The price on Juventus is 1.25, and we are offered 1.66 on Over 2.5 Goals, yet on the other hand the price on Both Teams To Score: NO is 1.61. This would mean that the bookmakers are expecting this game to go over, courtesy of Juventus goals alone. Juventus won 0-3 at Sassuolo in the previous round but it's not like they're doing that to lesser teams all the time. A 90-minute struggle is a far more likely scenario for Juventus than a free-scoring game.
The Betting Verdict
The low price on Juventus leaves us no choice but to search for value elsewhere. The 1.25 is a banker though. To get more out of this game, we could opt for an Asian Handicap -1.5 for 1.725 but you know as well as we do that Juventus doesn't win with handicaps very often. Five times this season in 19 attempts - is that a lot?
The Over/Under prices seem to be set all wrong, so this is where we'll be searching for value. Although Juventus is a huge favourite, they're not Inter, they can't score at will. Cremonese will defend deep and will be searching for counter attacks so this will likely be one of those games where it's difficult for Juventus to find an opening. We've seen it so many times this season.
And the bookmakers are offering us 1.66 on Over 2.5 Goals? That leaves us with 2.20 on Under 2.5 or, even better, 1.50 on Under 3.5 Goals. Sure, this game can go over if Cremonese scores a counter attack and Juventus manages to score twice to win the game, but even in case of a 2-1 scoreline we still win our bet.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Juventus 2-0 Cremonese
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Under 3.5 Goals at 1.50 at Bet365
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Here is the sort of bet my sheet throws up - it's clearly value but it's a longshot and whether you're prepared to take it and accept that it will miss 3 times out of 4 will define if this style is for you.
Juventus are clearly the better side (1.19 goals better says my sheet) and yet their home record of 5-4-0 shows that they draw a lot even here at the Allianz Stadium in Turin with two in the last four home games finishing all square against Torino and Lecce who are no better then Cremonese.
My sheet says the long term draw rate is 22% in this sort of match (maybe even higher for Juve here?), and so any price better than 4.54 for the draw is positive EV.
Right now we can get 6.00 for the DRAW at Bet365 and @6.26 with CLoudbet and the prices are still rising. That's good sporting value and it's worth a tickle ... even if for small stakes.
Over time these angles pay off - even if it's not here - but because the variance is so high (78% chance of failure in this game) why not start your Draw EV chase at very small stakes so you can accept a miss (or three) before hitting.
Juventus are clearly the better side (1.19 goals better says my sheet) and yet their home record of 5-4-0 shows that they draw a lot even here at the Allianz Stadium in Turin with two in the last four home games finishing all square against Torino and Lecce who are no better then Cremonese.
My sheet says the long term draw rate is 22% in this sort of match (maybe even higher for Juve here?), and so any price better than 4.54 for the draw is positive EV.
Right now we can get 6.00 for the DRAW at Bet365 and @6.26 with CLoudbet and the prices are still rising. That's good sporting value and it's worth a tickle ... even if for small stakes.
Over time these angles pay off - even if it's not here - but because the variance is so high (78% chance of failure in this game) why not start your Draw EV chase at very small stakes so you can accept a miss (or three) before hitting.
