Euro 2008
2007-11-17 - Israel vs Russia
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Israel to throw a life-line for England?
According to the doom-and-gloom merchants, England's qualification campaign is over - as Russia are assured of getting the six points they need in their final two games in order to eliminate England.I'm not so sure - as a quick look at Israel's recent record in competitive qualification matches show that they've lost just two of 18 previous qualifiers - 3-4 to Croatia and 1-2 to France back in 2003.
So on the surface at least, it seems that Israel have the ability to help England here - if they have the will to remain competitive - something that might be questioned after elimination.
Of course Russia will be fully primed for this game - as the second match is away at tiny Andorra - and so this game does loom as the make-or-break game of the group.
THE STATS
Israel held England to a 0-0 draw in Tel Aviv during this group phase - and in the last four qualifying tournaments Israel have a 7-9-2 record at home.
Israel Home Form (2-1-1)
28/03/07 W 4-0 v Estonia
24/03/07 D 0-0 v England
15/11/06 L 3-4 v Croatia
06/09/06 W 4-1 v Andorra
Russia are not automatic winners when travelling either - just two wins from four games in this group and only 9-7-5 in 21 road matches over the last four competitions.
Russia Away Form (2-1-1)
12/09/07 L 0-3 v England
06/06/07 D 0-0 v Croatia
24/03/07 W 2-0 v Estonia
15/11/06 W 2-0 v Macedonia
There does not seem to be a great gap between these two sides on the pitch then - a fact backed up by the 1-1 draw between the two sides in the first group match in Moscow.
Head to Head Form
07/10/06 Russia 1-1 Israel
TEAM NEWS
Israel will be without Yossi Benayoun for this game after the Liverpool midfielder sustained an adductor tear on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
So from a footballing point of view - there does not seem to be any reason to justify the massive price difference between the two teams - with the away team so short.
Of course there are two other considerations :
1) Motivation.
Israel are now out of the running - and so the attitude of the players and the crowd may be somewhat less than excited about this final home group match.
While for Russia this game is an important "must win" match - although it must be pointed out that away games against Croatia and England were also in this category - and both matches were not won.
2) "The Fix".
I don't usually like to talk about conspriacies in football - but in this game it does seem to me that at lot of the betting money has gone down heavily on Russia - in anticipation of an ... (ahem) ... arrangement.
Perhaps in future months we will see Russian miliatary support of Israel? Or the surprise support of Russia for Israel in the UN?
Or maybe it will be something as simple as lots of money and beautiful cars?
Whatever the case, we have two very old and very experienced countries that might see the opportunity to "do business" over the result of this game.
THE VERDICT
A very tricky game to handicap - as on football merits alone the prices available on Israel to win/draw are far too high - and are certainly value bets.
But - as mentioned above - there are other "factors" in this game that would throw all the reasoned football talk out of the window if they are in fact true.
I'm going to ignore "the fix" for prediction purposes - but you will need to consider whether YOU believe in those factors before placing any bets.
(BETTING NOTE : if you are betting on Russia then do it quickly as the prices are dropping - if you are betting on Israel then wait as prices are rising.
Most punters obviously believe in "the fix")
The Pick :
Israel 1-1 Russia
BEST BETTING TIP :
From a punters viewpoint - if everything is playing fairly then :Taking ISRAEL double chance at 2.62 at Paddy Power is the value play.
(but to must make your own mind up)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
so ISRAEL +1.00 AH is the call.
