Dutch EreDivision
2008-02-15 - Ajax Amsterdam vs Sparta Rotterdam
A Sports Betting Pick by Billie
Netherlands Eredivisie
Amsterdam ArenA
Friday 15th FEbruary 2008, Kickoff 19:30 GMT
Ajax Amsterdam
The title aspirations of the club are now gone definitly. With the possibility of closing the gap with PSV with 2 points, thanks to the 1-1 draw of PSV against Heerenveen, the gap grew with 1 point. This because Ajax failed to deliver again (away from home), this time against Roda, and lost 2-1.
It's very clear Ajax has got big problems, which are observed by everybody week after week. A weak defence and decisive defensive errors, and missing to many chances are the 2 most important, which were there again in the Roda match. Ajax dominated, created chance after chance but failed to finish them giving Roda the chance to win the match. Of course there were the not given penalty and the cancelled goal, but these excuses don't belong to a title-candidate as Ajax.
Captain Edgar Davids will be available again after missing 2 matches due to a red card against PSV, when he made 2 disgraceful 2-legged tackles in injury time. This is one of the reasons why he is under fire, but manager Adrie Koster hes kept faith in Davids, maintaining his captaincy.
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta is in trouble again. After 2 wins under new manager Foeke Booy there was a big relief, but 2 losses later this relief is gone. Instead of that, there are worries. Sparta is standing 15th, only 2 points away of the 18th placed Excelsior. This because they lost the little Rotterdam derby against Excelsior last sunday. Sparta was terrible, and outplayed by Excelsior.
Sparta's away record is just as worrying as their current league position, with 8 losses in 12 away matches and 33 conceded. However their last away match was a 2-1 win against FC Twente. This looks like a good perfomance on first sight, but when you look at Twente's form at that time, and Sparta's luck at that time, you'll see that it will be a one-day performance. It will be very hard for Sparta to get out of the relegation zone, as they have some talented players, but no squad that's used to play against relegation.
For this match Sparta will miss topscorer and targetman Yuri Rose, and this is a major loss for them. Since the arrival of Foeke Booy, he was the man striker of Sparta, as he is the only one in the squad with the physical ability to keep the ball. The other available strikers are quick, but physically not strong enough.
THE Verdict:
With Ajax now only playing for the play-offs, it seems like Ajax has nothing to play for. But still Ajax will try to break down the gap with PSV and hope for a miracle to become champions.
Also they'll try to keep the second place, because they will play the number 5 in the first round of the play-offs. The players of the club that will probably be leaving at the end of the season as Stekelenburg, Heitinga and Huntelaar will give everything to have an easier exit to the big clubs.
It's obvious Ajax will have way too much firepower, and even if Sparta will try to keep it tight, it will not be enough to keep Ajax off winning. Sparta without Rose will be toothless, and Ajax's defense at home has bettered, with the last two matches "winning to nil".
Also worth noticing is that Ajax when winning at home this season, this has been with a 2-goal margin or more, without exception.
The Pick :
Ajax to win by 2+ goals.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
My bet will be Ajax -1.50 goals @ 1.54
