English Premier
2008-04-28 - Derby County vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by chappers
- English Premier League -
Pride Park
28th April 2008 KO 8PM (live on Setanta)
Derby County (20th EPL)
Played 35 with 11 points
This has been an awful season for Derby and with only eleven points in the bag with three games to go, the only thing that will concern them is that the reach more than fifteen points in order to beat the lowest ever total set by Sunderland a couple of years ago. The problem for Derby is that I honestly don’t think they will manage it and would not be surprised to see them gain no more points at all this season. Next season the Derby fans will be hoping that they can pick up the pieces and get back to winning ways but it isn’t that easy and Paul Jewell will have to get rid of the losing mentality if Derby are to bounce back up at the first attempt.
Derby have only won one game all season and that was when they beat Newcastle 1-0 at Pride Park, and with a record of 1-8-26 means that they have a losing record of 74%. At home eleven teams have came and taken away the three points and like I’ve said the only team that left with nothing was Newcastle.
Derby have lost the last three games, which included a 6-0 home defeat at the hands of Aston Villa. However in the last twelve games they have picked up four points and three of those have been at home, so while it is doubtful that they will manage to win another game there is always the chance with lady luck shining down on them they may get a point.
Arsenal (3rd EPL)
Played 35 with 74 points
It has been a funny season for Arsenal with most at the start of the season writing them off (me included) and then as the season went on you found they were a joy to watch and for me the only team who played nicer football was Manchester United. However as the season went on Arsenal became the team that you hated to back as unlike any other team in the league there was a chance that they would be the ones who would cost you money as they just couldn’t put games to bed and at times they sometimes seemed to overplay the ball and the game would either end in a draw or while they might have won the match, they did it the hard way.
An overall record of 21-11-3 tells the story about the draws and they have almost double the amount of draws that league leaders Manchester United have, so while this season has been better than most maybe hoped the amount of draws has been disappointing and will have to be addressed if they want to do better next season. Away from home has seen them win eight times and this is 47% win rate and again when you look at say Chelsea who have a win rate away at 66%, again you can see that Arsenal need to improve and those draws have cost them dearly.
Recent form has been what has cost Arsenal a chance of the title and maybe the size of the squad has been the main problem, with such a small squad to chose from it has meant when the injuries and suspensions have kicked in, Arsenal have not had the same depth that some of the other teams in the league have had. While they have won away recently when they came from two goals down to beat Bolton, either side of that saw them lose and both Chelsea and Manchester United, and with two draws away before that, put an end to the title dream for this year.
Head to Head
Arsenal has a great record at Derby and have won four out of the last six times they have visited. They have won the last three and have not lost to Derby since a 3-0 defeat back in 1997.
Verdict
The bookies have Arsenal as easy winners here and have priced them at 1.33 and it is hard to argue against them winning. Derby has already lost 26 times this season and only won once so it will be a brave man to beat against Arsenal.
My only worry is that Arsenal do at times make it hard in games they really should win with ease, but I think that anything other than an Arsenal win will be a shock and even if the price is low, It should be a decent win and maybe even consider Arsenal with -1 if you feel brave enough.
Pick Arsenal to win @ 1.33
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal to win the Match
