UEFA Cup
2009-03-12 - CSKA Moscow vs Shakhtar Donetsk
A Sports Betting Pick by Jason
Football: Europe, UEFA Cup
Thursday 12th March 2009 - Kickoff 17:00 GMT
CSKA were 1.90 in the beginning of the week, and now the price dropped to 1.72. I really can't understand the punters optimism about the hosts especially with the yesterday's news from CSKA camp - winger Zhirkov and striker Vagner Love are doubtful for tomorrow's match because of injuries.
I feel that they will play in the end, but couple of missed training sessions before the match can always have a negative effect on your game. CSKA are approaching the game after winning the Russian Super Cup match against Rubin Kazan last Saturday, however the championship in Russia will start only next weekend.
Meanwhile I was not impressed by CSKA in the 3 official games after the winter break. They survived 1-1 draw in Birmingham only with the help of luck, while Aston Villa were not interested in the return leg at all. On Saturday they beat Rubin only in extra-time after the match official ridiculous decision to sent off Rubin's player.
Now, Shaktar are far from their best as well. The home win against Spurs was not spectacular and the return leg in London was even worse. They enjoyed 1-0 win against Lviv in the last domestic match, although the players clearly had the game against CSKA in mind.
Comparing the quality of the squads, I would say they are pretty evenly matched (both teams should be at full strength tomorrow). Of course, Vagner Love is way better in class then any of Shakhtar's strikers, but the visitors are slightly better in midfield and at the back.
The only real advantage CSKA have is the artificial pitch at Luzhniki stadium, however Shakhtar arrived in Moscow early (on Sunday) to adopt to such conditions.
The Betting Verdict
So, maybe CSKA are favorites, but I simply can not give them more than a 45% chance to win. Meanwhile Shakhtar (+0.5) available at 2.21 at bet365 and I can't give it a miss.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Shakhtar (+0.5 goal) @ 2.21 to avoid defeat.
