MERLIN SAYS :

Corinthians v Vitoria (de Bahia)
Brazil Serie A (Round 13)
Thursday 23rd July 2009 at 9.00pm (local) 1am GMT

---

CORINTHIANS (6th - Home Rec : 5-0-1 15:8)

Corinthians are currently 6th in Serie A, but only 1 point behind today’s opponents.

Corinthians are having a storming season, have already bagged one of the National Cups, and will quite likely sustain their challenge for a top 6 spot till the end of the season.

The beat a broken Cruzeiro side last week away, and despite having to hold on grimly at times they were deserving 1-2 winners, with fat boy Ronaldo bagging 1 which compensated for his missed penalty.

Corinthians League Stats
Games played: 12
Wins: 6
Losses: 4
Draws: 2
Away Wins: 1
Home Wins: 5
Red Cards: 2
Yellow Cards: 34
Goals Scored: 18 (from 116 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 16
Passing Errors: 35.67%

VITORIA (4th - Away Rec : 1-2-3 5:7)

Vitoria are a revelation this season, currently holding their own as we approach the second-third of the Brazil Serie A 2009 season.

They were promoted from Serie B in 2007 and at this moment in time are 4th in the “big boy’s” league. Whether they can stay there is another matter although they are a very well run club, as well as being one of the oldest in Brazil – So they have every chance of doing so.

Vitoria were held to a 0-0 draw at home last week to current leaders Atletico of Minais Gerais. They did however have chances to win the game but failed to net, notwithstanding at first, both teams played with a degree of caution, as neither wanted to concede and possibly lose their very respectable league positions.

Vitoria League Stats :
Games played: 12
Wins: 6
Losses: 3
Draws: 3
Away Wins: 1
Home Wins: 5
Red Cards: 4
Yellow Cards: 34
Goals Scored: 21 (from 116 shots/headers on target)
Goals Conceded: 13
Passing Errors: 26.75%

THE BETTING VERDICT

These sides have a similar profile so it’s hardly surprising to see them being separated by only 1 point.

Whilst Vitoria are a better footballing side, a side which holds and passes the ball well, Corinthians are notoriously difficult to overcome, are in form, at home, and scoring goals.

I do think this is a Corinthians win not only because they are playing at home, but because they really are on a streak right now and can make this consecutive win number 3. Moreover they will not expect to lose this and could comfortably win it by a couple of goals.

On the other hand, Vitoria have only managed to win 1 game from their last 4 which doesn’t bode to well travelling to Sao Paulo on a Thursday night.

Moreover, these 2 have met only twice before (in the top flight) Corinthians won their home game 1-0 and bagged a draw, 1-1 away.

So it is a Corinthians win then, and out of interest, if you like betting half-time and full-time results, Corinthians have won their last 5 home games winning at half-time too.

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

It’s Corinthians to win all the way at 1.67