MLB Baseball
2011-07-22 - Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
United States: MLB Baseball
Friday 22 July 2011 - First Pitch 7:10pm ET
12:10am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is Game 1 of a series between two teams that very much have the postseason in mind this season. The Atlanta Braves (58-41) remain on the coattails of the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East, while the Cincinnati Reds (48-50) are only 4 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central.
Atlanta continue their road trip after splitting a 4 game series in Colorado, finishing off with a 9-6 win yesterday. Dan Uggla missed that game, but will be hoping he can come back into the starting lineup so he can continue his powerful hitting against the Reds this season.
The Braves may not need to get as many runs as they did last night if Jair Jurrgens can return to the form that has seen him post a 12-3 record with a 2.26 ERA this season.
Jurrgens struggled in his last outing against the Washington Nationals, giving up a season high 6 runs in 5 innings even though the Braves still won 9-8. Before that outing, the pitcher had posted a 1.03 ERA in winning 4 consecutive starts.
He has the best ERA in the National League, although before the game with Washington it was the best ERA in the Major League. Now Jurggens looks to put the record straight against the Reds against whom he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 career starts.
However, he improved that record once against Cincinnati this season when posting a win in May when giving up just 1 run in 8 innings pitched.
Cincinnati will not be that happy to see Jurrgens on the mound as the offense has been spluttering of late. They have scored just 7 runs in their last 5 games and were shut out twice in a series loss in Pittsburgh.
Bronson Arroyo goes to the mound for the Reds and he is 7-8 with a 5.57 ERA this season. He has particularly struggled in his last 3 starts, recording a 0-2 record with a 8.66 ERA and he allowed all 4 runs in his last start, a 4-1 loss to St Louis.
Arroyo has 7 starts against the Braves since joining Cincinnati in 2006 and is 4-3 with a 6.80 ERA.
Head to Head
Atlanta lead the season series 2-1 when winning a series in May.
Cincinnati are 3-7 in their last 10 home games with Bronson Arroyo as the starter.
Atlanta are 19-8 in their last 27 games overall.
Cincinnati are 16-16 in Game 1's this season, but they are just 6-10 when winning their last game.
Atlanta are 19-13 in Game 1's, but they are 9-10 when coming in off a win.
Prediction
I think the key to this game is the fact that Atlanta have a little more stability on the mound to start off and could build a foundation off which they can grab another win on the road.
Jair Jurrgens struggled in his last start but has been solid for most of the season and has already shut down the Cincinnati offense once this season. The Reds are also struggling on the plate and that may aid the Braves further.
Atlanta have missed some big offensive weapons but that has not stopped them scoring runs and they may not need to score too many tonight to ensure they get another W on the board.
The matchup seems to favour the road team enough tonight for me to want to be on.
The Pick :
Cincinnati Reds 2-4 Atlanta Braves
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Atlanta Braves @ 1.90 (Various)
