MLB Baseball
2026-05-18 - Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : Major League Baseball
Monday 18th May 2026 - Scheduled 6:40pm EST
11:40pm (British Time)
Preview
The American League East has regularly been one of the best Divisions in the Major League and usually it is competitive enough to bring up what could be considered surprising standings.
The middle of May is not going to determine what may, or may not, happen in October, but the Tampa Bay Rays (30-15) have put together a strong run of form that has taken them to the top of the Division. Pre-season expectations had many tipping the Rays to finish in the basement of the American League East, but they are one of two teams with a winning record and this early work could put Tampa Bay in a position to return to the Playoffs.
Continuing to build on the form is the key and it should be remembered that barely a quarter of the regular season has been played.
The Rays will open this series against Divisional rivals the Baltimore Orioles (21-26) feeling confident having won twelve of the fifteen games played this month. This has pushed them into having the strongest record in the American League, while only the Atlanta Braves have more than the 30 wins produced by Tampa Bay.
While they have been playing with some momentum, the Baltimore Orioles have been trending in the other direction and have lost eleven of the last seventeen games played.
With that in mind, the Orioles will be hoping the team and the starting pitcher can begin to turn things back around when handing the ball to Trevor Rogers. The pitcher has a 2-4 record and 5.77 ERA from the seven starts made this season and that is a real drop from the performances in the eighteen starts made in 2025.
Trevor Rogers has taken the decision loss in each of the last four starts and has allowed at least three runs in all of those. The lack of command on the mound has meant he has not been able to pitch beyond the 5th Inning and Rogers is back out on the road for the first time since allowing five earned runs in 5 Innings against the Cleveland Guardians.
One positive for Trevor Rogers is that he has a 1-0 record and a 3.98 in four previous starts against the Tampa Bay Rays, although the opposition pitcher is likely going to put Rogers under some pressure to perform.
The Rays will hand the ball to Shane McClanahan who opened his Major League career in the kind of form that looked like he would become one of the top players in that position for years to come. He was an All Star twice in his first three seasons in the League, but Tommy John Surgery ruled him out for the entirety of 2024.
Another injury cost McClanahan the 2025 season, but he has returned to make eight starts already in 2026 and has a 4-2 record and 2.27 ERA.
His opening four starts saw some inconsistency on the mound, but Shane McClanahan has found a really good rhythm and has not allowed a single run in any of the last four starts made. In those, McClanahan has thrown almost 22 full Innings and he has given up just eleven Hits, while the pitcher has a 6-0 record and 2.86 from nine previous starts against this Divisional rival.
This is the first time the Rays and Orioles will be seeing one another in 2026, but the last eight games of 2025 had been split with four wins each.
Prediction
There is so much to like about the performances of Shane McClanahan on the mound in his return to the Tampa Bay starting rotation and he can build upon recent outings against the slumping Baltimore Orioles.
Trevor Rogers has been having a tough time on the mound and that is an opportunity for the Rays to open this series with a Divisional rival behind a win.
The Pick :
Tampa Bay Rays 5-2 Baltimore Orioles
