NBA Basketball
2012-05-05 - Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off First Round
Saturday 5 May 2012 - Tip Off 2pm ET
7pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Orlando Magic already look like they are drinking in the last chance saloon in the series as they have dropped the last two games to trail 2-1, including giving back the home court advantage they had earned by winning game 1. The last two games have been easy wins for the Indiana Pacers who will look to head home just a game away from moving through to a Semi Final with the Miami Heat.
This series has not really had the TV companies that interested, especially since Dwight Howard was not going to take any part in it, but it did get some media coverage this week for an Indiana 'joke'. They had labelled the fire extinguisher outside of their locker room with a 'do not punch' sign as a shot at what Amare Stoudemire did for the New York Knicks in Miami earlier in the week.
Indiana can afford to make jokes as they seem to have just the right match ups in this series. The Pacers have scored at least 93 points in their last two games in this series, while they have not allowed more than 81 points in any of the three games so far.
The Pacers are dominating the boards so far, but they have been humble and are still talking up the chances the Magic have with their ability to shoot the three point ball. However, without Dwight Howard, Indiana can afford to send the likes of David West out to the perimeter to keep Ryan Anderson in check and this has been very effective all series.
Stan Van Gundy has said his Orlando team have shown no signs of quitting, but he seems more concerned with the fact that they just may not be good enough against the Pacers. He has also admitted that he plans 'subtle' changes to try and turn the tide from the last two games, but the starting line up will stay the same.
Glen Davis got 22 points in the last game and he figures to get his numbers again as the Pacers are more concerned with stopping the likes of Ryan Anderson, Jason Richardson and Jameer Nelson.
Head to Head
Orlando's season series lead over the Indiana Pacers has been cut to 4-3 with the two wins the Pacers have had in the last two games of the series.
The Magic are 4-3 against the spread in the 2012 series so far.
Orlando had won 6 in a row at home straight up, but have now lost 2 of their last 3 here, both straight up and against the spread.
The road team has also improved to 5-2 against the spread in the last 7 games of this series.
Other Interesting Trends
Orlando have won their last 5 games against the spread following a double-digit loss at home.
They are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the home underdog of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Indiana are 5-13 against the spread in their last 18 games as the road favourite of between 5 and 10.5 points.
Prediction
I am going to back the Indiana Pacers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, the Pacers just seem to be rolling defensively and I think they will be able to pull away, as they have in the last two games, if they can restrict the Magic to 81 points or less for a fourth consecutive game.
Second, all the momentum is with the Pacers and we have already seen many examples this season, as well as previous years, when momentum is so hard to stop. This is especially the case with the way Indiana have dominated the last two games and with little time between games to make big adjustments.
Third, a couple of trends that go against Orlando- one, they are 12-20 against the spread over the last three years when trying to revenge a home loss; two, they are 14-20 against the spread in the last three years with 2 days rest between games.
Fourth, Indiana are 7-4 against the spread this season when favoured between 5 and 7 points, while they are 5-3 against the spread when favoured by between 3.5 and 6 points on the road.
The Pick :
Orlando Magic 83-91 Indiana Pacers
