NBA Basketball
2012-06-03 - Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Eastern Conference Play Off Final
Sunday 3 June 2012 - Tip Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Boston Celtics came out with plenty of energy in game 3, weathering the Miami Heat storm early in the game and another later on to bring themselves back into this Eastern Conference Finals series. They now host the Heat in game 4 as they look to emulate the Oklahoma City Thunder and level the series before heading back to Miami in a couple of days time.
Kevin Garnett was clearly fired up after the game as you could tell from his interview with reporters on the way out of the TD Garden. Garnett scored 24 points in game 3 as the Celtics took advantage of his size and match up.
Rajon Rondo followed up his career best game by scoring 21 points and handing out 10 dimes, but they cannot take these two match ups as a guarantee to win them the game if last year is to be believed. The Heat won the first two games then, dropped game 3 and then managed to win game 4 here in overtime.
Chris Bosh remains sidelined, but he has been participating with team drills a little more and I can see him being back for the later games of the series if it gets that far. His absence has hurt the Heat in this series as it has meant the Boston Celtics can double team Dwyane Wade, an area they have excelled at.
Wade has scored 18 points in game 3, but was also held to 15 points in regulation in game 2 before going off in the overtime period. It has meant the likes of Mike Miller and Mario Chalmers have had to chip in, something that both have been doing effectively in the series so far.
LeBron James has been huge for the Heat and a lot will rest on his shoulders as it usually does. However, he has made it clear that he wants to get Wade going in this game as soon as possible to try and get his confidence going, much as he did against Indiana in game 4 of that series in the last round.
Head to Head
Boston now lead the season series 4-3 thanks to their win in game 3 of this Final series, and they improved to 6-1 against the spread in those games.
The Celtics are now 14-1 against the Heat at home, although that loss did come in game 4 of their Play Off series last season. They are now 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 at home against Miami.
Other Interesting Trends
Boston are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the home underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
However, they have lost their last 5 games against the spread following a straight up win.
Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favourite.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Prediction
I think this game is going to be incredibly tight to call a winner, but I am going to back the over total points for the following reasons:
First, Boston have exploited a couple of real match ups in this series and I have to think they will again with Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo leading the way. I expect the Celtics will score the points they need, while Miami's support cast are also helping their team put up points.
Second, the referees usually are involved in higher scoring games and we have seen the foul trouble that both of them have been getting involved in as the creative players continue to attack the basket.
Third, I am expecting both teams to score 90 plus points in this one and so that will be enough for them to get over the total set in this game.
The Pick :
Boston Celtics 94-92 Miami Heat
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Over 179.5 Points @ 1.95
