NBA Basketball
2012-06-12 - Miami Heat at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Finals
Tuesday 12 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is probably the NBA Finals that most would have picked if they couldn't see LeBron James take on Kobe Bryant on the top table of the NBA. Instead we get James' Miami Heat facing the Kevin Durant led Oklahoma City Thunder as the MVP and Scoring Leader meet for the first time since 1997.
Don't get it confused that this is a one-on-one match to decide the richest prize in the sport of basketball because it is a series with plenty of potential match winners from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to James Harden and Russell Westbrook.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the team with plenty of momentum behind them as they have taken care of Dallas Mavericks, the defending Champions, the LA Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs in consecutive rounds. The last of those against the Spurs was incredibly impressive as they beat a team 4 straight times after snapping their 20 win run streak.
Miami had a tougher path through to the Finals in terms of actual series rather than what should have been the tougher route on paper. They handled the New York Knicks easily enough, but it was an injury to Chris Bosh that then changed their series with the Indiana Pacers who they trailed 2-1 before winning three games in a row.
It didn't get easier as the veteran Boston Celtics actually led 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals before LeBron James took over and had two exceptional Play Off games to lead the Heat to a 4-3 series win.
While the Heat have had a few days to rest since that win, there has been a sense of tiredness in the camp, although I am sure the adrenaline of playing in the NBA Finals will lift them for the next couple of weeks.
Head to Head
The teams met twice in the regular season, both winning on their home court straight up and against the spread.
They have split the last 10 games, although the Oklahoma City Thunder do lead 6-4 against the spread in those games.
Oklahoma City are 2-1, both straight up and against the spread, in their last three home games against Miami, but they did not enjoy the best of times before that.
Miami had been 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their previous six visits to the Thunder before this latest mini-run.
Other Interesting Trends
Oklahoma City have won their last 4 home games against the spread when they are set as the favourite.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record on the road.
They are 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games against teams from the Eastern Conference.
Miami are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the road underdog.
They are 6-13 against the spread in their last 19 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their home games.
Prediction
This is going to be a great series, of that I am sure, and I am going to back the Oklahoma City Thunder to get off to a good start and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, I think the Thunder have all the momentum after beating the San Antonio Spurs in four straight games to get to the Finals and they should come up fired up in one of the loudest Arenas in the NBA.
Second, the Heat have looked a little tired in their press conferences ahead of game 1 and coming off a game 7 series win can be tough. This season, we have seen the Clippers and the Lakers both blown out in game 1 of a series after winning the previous series in 7.
Third, the Thunder lost the last time they played Miami and have been good in this spot. They are 13-6 against the spread when revenging a loss this season.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City 95-88 Miami Heat
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma City Thunder -5 Points @ 1.92
