NBA Basketball
2012-06-21 - Oklahoma City at Miami Heat
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball Finals
Thursday 21 June 2012 - Tip Off 9pm ET
2am (British Standard Time)
Preview
LeBron James and the Miami Heat are in year two of their project since they brought a 'Big Three' together in the hope of winning 'not three, not four, not five, not six' rings and they find themselves just a game away from getting the first of those tonight.
Game 5 probably represents their best chance of actually getting the job done as the Oklahoma City Thunder have lost just one home game in the Play Offs this season, albeit to the Miami Heat, but history is not on the Thunder's side. In fact, no team has ever come back from a 1-3 deficit in the NBA Finals and gone on to win the series.
Game 4 was a key game as that history was looming large over the Thunder. They seemed to come out with renewed vigour and expectation and had built a 17 point lead by the end of the first quarter, but they couldn't put Miami away and ended up losing the game.
A lot of the critics that had been on LeBron's case for failing in the clutch were made to eat a few of their words as a limping James made a vital three pointer that broke a 94-94 tie in the final minutes of that game. James was cramping badly in both legs, but has said he will be fine by the time game 5 rolls around.
Oklahoma City wasted a monster performance from Russell Westbrook, the polarising Point Guard, although there are some harsh writers that are more interested in the silly foul Westbrook made with 13 seconds remaining. It was a lapse of concentration for Westbrook who had been superb throughout the night and fuelled the Thunder with 43 points on an efficient shooting night.
There has to be some criticisms of the referees too as they seem far too reluctant to give fouls against the Miami Heat, particularly when the Thunder drive the ball to the rim and that could be a factor tonight. With the referees being criticised from all areas, there is every chance that the Thunder may finally get some calls they should have had early in the series.
I also don't think this young Thunder team is ready to go away considering they beat San Antonio four straight times to reach the Finals and Kevin Durant was speaking as much in his last press conference. He refuses to accept defeat until the series is completed, but he will need more help from James Harden who seems to have suffered a crisis in confidence.
Harden was comfortably the 'Sixth Man of the Year' this season, but he has looked indecisive and unsure of himself during the Finals. He has missed absolute open shots, while also reluctantly taking a 17 footer in game 4, all signs of a player not at one with himself. The Thunder know they cannot get by if he is not firing as it puts too much pressure on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant to fire them to victory.
Head to Head
Miami are now leading the season series 4-2 and will need just one more win to give them the Championship. The Heat also improved to 4-2 against the spread having earned the cover in the last three games.
The Heat are 4-2 against Oklahoma City since they moved from Seattle, going 3-3 against the spread in those games.
Other Interesting Trends
Miami are now 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite laying between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games against a team that has won at least 60% of their games.
Oklahoma City are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games after a straight up loss.
Prediction
I am sticking with the points total and will look for game 5 to go over 193.5 points for the following reasons:
First, I expect the referees are under some pressure to make more calls in favour of Oklahoma City and this a team that consistently attacks the rim and those fouls could see the game extended.
Second, there is pressure on the defences that haven't had time for adjustments and both these offenses are capable of putting up 100 points on their own.
Third, three of the four games in the series so far would have seen this total eclipsed and I don't see either team running away with game 5 so the chance for overtime is pretty good if the cover hasn't come in by regulation.
The Pick :
Miami Heat 104-100 Oklahoma City Thunder
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Over 193.5 Points @ 1.95
