NBA Basketball
2025-06-11 - Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States : NBA Finals Game 3
Wednesday 11th June 2025 - Scheduled 8:30pm
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
There won't have been much surprise about the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder put up a big response to dropping Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the 16 point win in Game 2 was even more comfortable than the final score might have suggested.
The momentum may have swung back to the Western Conference Champions, and favourites to win the NBA Championship, but the Indiana Pacers have responded to setbacks right through the NBA Playoff run.
Ultimately the Pacers will be returning home feeling like they have achieved their most immediate goal and that is taking away home advantage from the Oklahoma City Thunder. This is the first time in the post-season that the Indiana Pacers are not leading 2-0 after the first two games, which is going to be challenging, but there is a real feeling amongst the Pacers players and staff that there are many adjustments they can still make.
With that in mind, the 1-1 score after two games is pretty good for Indiana who should have lost both games, but continue to show they can rally at key moments.
However, the adjustments that they need to make are clear and the Pacers are still in 'prove it' mode as they look to get the team on track in Game 3. Slow starts have been a feature of the opening two games, but the Pacers have not allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to pull too far away and they will be expecting role players to produce much better being back at home.
Tyrese Haliburton took the headlines for his game winning shot in Game 1, but he has only scored 31 points in the two games played and the Pacers have yet to have a single player reach 20 points. This has to change, as Haliburton has acknowledged, while the slow starts also cannot continue with Indiana being forced to fight out of holes.
They scored 45 first half points in Game 1 and just 41 points in Game 2, but the Pacers have found a stronger rhythm in the second half of both of those games. Unfortunately for Indiana, they were down in a deep hole in Game 2 and could not really force their way back into that one as a contest and so that is something Rick Carlisle and the team have to address if they are going to find a way back to Oklahoma City either 3-1 ahead or, at worse, at 2-2.
Indiana's depth has impressed, but those bench players have not been as effective as they need and there is some pressure on the starters to come out and fire. The Pacers have been in decent shape when the starting five have been on the court, but they just need to make some adjustments to try and put some pressure on a Thunder Defensive unit that have impressed all season.
It is tough to oppose Oklahoma City, but this is a team that have had more challenges when playing on the road and the Indiana Pacers should still have plenty of belief in what they are trying to do. With the home crowd behind them, Indiana should be able to make a faster start and some of the bench players should be more comfortable being back in their own Arena.
At the same time, perhaps the Thunder bench is not as effective now they are operating in a hostile environment and so the points on offer with the home team look appealing.
Teams that have been blown out in the NBA Finals have struggled in their next game, but that was not the case in the 2024 Series and the Indiana Pacer can bounce back. They can take comfort from the fact that teams that have won Game 2 have followed up with a 4-8 record against the spread in Game 3, while it cannot be ignored that the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-7 against the spread as the road favourite in the NBA Playoffs this season, despite being 4-3 straight up in those games.
The Pacers are 6-2 straight up at home in the Playoff run in 2025 and they are 1-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog.
There are likely going to be moments when the Thunder look like they can pull away for another big win, but the Indiana Pacers have shown they can make the adjustments before and during games when things have gone against them. Those have seen the Pacers surprise at times and they may be able to keep this one competitive and potentially pull the upset outright.
Prediction
This has been an intriguing NBA Finals so far and there may be another twist with the home underdog looking capable of making the adjustments needed to perhaps spring an outright upset in this important Game 3.
The Pick :
Indiana Pacers 113-110 Oklahoma City Thunder
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Indiana Pacers + 5.5 Points at -110 with EveryGame Sportsbook
