NCAA Basketball

2026-03-19 - South Florida Bulls at Louisville Cardinals

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls
United States : NCAA Basketball Tournament First Round
Thursday 19th March 2026 - Scheduled 1:30pm
5:30pm (British Time)

Preview

The introduction of NIL contracts in the College scene have changed the landscape in the sporting fields- in College Football it has allowed new names to come to the fore, while in College Basketball the impact has been on 'March Madness'.

While only a small sample, the recent Tournament Brackets have not been collapsing as nearly as much as they would in the past and it is not as 'Mad' a period as we have become accustomed to seeing. However, that does not mean that there are no upsets, just fewer than we have seen in the past and the very top Seeds are that much harder to shake.

With that in mind, it may feel strange to be opposing the Louisville Cardinals (23-10) in the First Round, but it does feel like they are being asked to lay too many points.

The spread has actually come in slightly after it was announced that Mikel Brown Jr is going to miss this opening Tournament game. His status is uncertain for any Second Round game too, but the absence of Brown Jr will give the South Florida Bulls (25-8) a huge boost in confidence, not that they may have needed that anyway.

Wes Enis is the leading scorer and already made it his feelings known that he feels this is 'not an upset' and that the South Florida Bulls are the better team in this contest. The fact is that the Bulls have won nineteen of the last twenty-two games played and even those three defeats have been in very competitive outings and that will have given the squad a huge belief in what they are able to accomplish in this NCAA Tournament.

Not only did South Florida win the American regular season title, but they completed the American Tournament win too and they are capable of getting hot from the three point range. That may be important, but another factor that could give the Bulls an opportunity to win this First Round game is their ability to pull down the boards and earn those second chance shots.

An underwhelming campaign will have hurt the Cardinals stock, but it should be noted that they are looking like the better team on paper. Even the absence of Mikel Brown Jr should not change that, but this is a Louisville team that lives or dies by the three point shot and South Florida have been Defending the perimeter effectively in recent outings.

The Cardinals success and failure can clearly be seen from the three point shooting efficiency- if they can hit over 35% of those shots, they have won sixteen of eighteen games, but Louisville have lost eight of fifteen when they have failed to do that.

Credit has to be given to the roster for finding a way to play without Mikel Brown Jr having struggled in his absence earlier this season. The Cardinals have won three of the last four when Brown Jr has been missing so they may still have enough to edge this one, but South Florida have every chance of winning outright too and that makes the points being offered to the best team in the American Conference that much more appealing to take.

Prediction

Some of the top Seeds are tipped to coast through opening Round games as March Madness fully gets going, but the Louisville Cardinals are one of the highest Seeds that look vulnerable for an upset.