English League Two
2011-01-28 - Bury vs Shrewsbury Town
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : England : League 2
Friday 28th January 2011
Live on Sky Sports 2
I know theyve had a busy week but Im not quite sure what Sky were thinking when they picked this one for live coverage.
Bury. Home record W3 D5 L3. Havent won in 6 games.
Shrewsbury. Away record W4 D4 L5. Won 1 in 6 games.
I had the, errr, pleasure of watching Shrewsbury on Tuesday night as they slumped to defeat at my team Oxford. In fairness to the Shrews they opened the game very brightly and should have taken an early lead, but everyone does that against Oxford.
They then did something that no one does against Oxford, they let Oxford score first.
This caused great confusion amongst the home fans and players, a nervous unease pervaded the Kassam Stadium. Everyone was wondering what would happen next, its so long since something like that happened.
Everyone was a lot more secure when Oxford let Shrewsbury score a soft equaliser minutes later.
That goal came from Shrewsbury top scorer Mark Wright, who now has 12 to his name from left midfield. An untidy goal that took a hefty deflection on its way in.
And that is telling, because whilst Wright looks a tidy anytime goalscorer bet at 3/1, Shrewsbury as a team clearly lacked cutting edge. They kept the ball well enough and were committed and well organised, but lacked any real ideas going forward and never looked like they believed they were going to score.
When Oxford came good late on, as they often do, it was unusual and alarming how quickly the Shrews gave up.
It is possible of course that Shrewsbury had their eyes on this game. Not often Shrewsbury are live on TV, and understandable maybe that they wanted to be at their best for the cameras. But recent form suggests this isnt a side who are on the up, fourth spot in the rankings certainly appeared to flatter them on the strength of Tuesdays performance.
Town also have the disadvantage of fatigue. Playing league leaders Chesterfield last Saturday, followed by defeat at Oxford Tuesday, is not ideal preparation for a Friday night trip to Bury. The home side have had the benefit of a full weeks rest having played last Friday, and surely will have had Shrewsbury watched in midweek.
So are Bury the bet then? Probably, but its difficult to back any side with a dreadful home record and two goals in four games. Quotes of 5/4 about the home side just arent big enough to be worth the risk in my opinion.
In 14 goal Ryan Lowe, they have a goalscorer who can poach a goal at any time, but even he hasnt been finding the net with any regularity of late.
Theres nothing really significant in the early team news that help us pick a winner here, and even the head to heads offer us no help solving the puzzle. Bury have the better record as the home side as wed expect but the last three meetings have seen a home win, a draw and an away win.
This all set up for an untidy League 2 battle, probably low scoring, between two sides struggling to maintain lofty league positions.
They cant both lose, so Ill go for the draw. Its the same price as the away win and is more likely than that in my opinion.
The Pick :
Bury 1 Shrewsbury 1
