NCAA Football
2011-09-10 - Alabama at Penn State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football Week 2
Saturday 10 September 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
Both of these teams won in Week 1 but there are still some issues to address. The Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0) are still unsure which of their QBs are going to be the permanent starter so we could see both teams using 2 QBs during this game.
Penn State are still deciding if Rob Bolden or Matt McGloin will be leading the team, and both split time in last weeks 40-7 win over Indiana State. While they have made it clear that they can 'win with both guys' the indecisive nature does not make the fans feel any more comfortable knowing they face one of the stoutest Defensive units in College Football.
Out of the two QBs, it seems McGloin had the slight edge in terms of performance and the Offense seemed to gel better when he was under Center.
The bad news for the Lions was the fact the Offensive Line had some big problems in the win, and that is something the Crimson Tide will look to take advantage of. Rob Bolden will have an edge in terms of experience over McGloin as he faced Alabama last season, although did not exactly cover himself in light.
Anthony Fera (P) was kept out of the opener by Joe Paterno for failing to adhere to some team rules, but he is back this week although still behind Alex Butterworth on the depth chart.
AJ McCarron and Philip Sims were both given a chance to play at QB last week for Alabama. Both threw 2 Interceptions in their time on the field, but it was McCarron who was statistically the better after throwing for over 200 yards. While that was the case when looking at statistics, Nick Saban has still not indicated who will be the starter.
The key for the Crimson Tide is their running game and Defensive team. Both Jalston Fowler and Eddie Lacy had rushing TDs, while the Defense held Kent State to just 90 yards in the 48-7 win.
Danny Woodson Jr (WR) missed the opening week of the season for Alabama as he had not met the necessary requirements to take part in practice. He has finally completed those and in set as probable to play some part this week.
Head to Head
Alabama beat Penn State 24-3 last season in their first meeting since 1990. They had met for 9 straight years before 1990.
The Crimson Tide covered the 14.5 point handicap in their win last season.
Other Interesting Notes
Penn State are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home underdog being given between 3.5 and 10 points.
They are 2-7 against the spread in their last 9 non-Conference games.
The Nittany Lions are 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 games in September.
Alabama have won their last 7 games against the spread in non-Conference games.
They are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 road games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
This could be Joe Paterno's last season as the Head Coach at Penn State and you just know the fans are going to be fired up for this game against an old rival.
The problem for the Nittany Lions is they are coming into this game with too many doubts about their Offense, from the line through to the QB. Against a Defense like the Crimson Tide, that spells trouble and I can see them creating enough turnovers and stops to give their own team short fields to work with.
I would be much more comfortable with Alabama if their own QB issues had been sorted out. Both McCarren and Sims made some bad mistakes that led to turnovers and they will not want to put their own Defense under pressure by doing the same this week.
Therefore I expect Nick Saban to use a lot of running plays to open up bigger passing lanes for his QBs and I think they will eventually wear down the Nittany Lions.
The Defense will play their part too and they will force Penn State into bad plays as they begin strangling the Offense and eventually this will all hopefully allow Alabama to push clear.
The Pick :
Penn State 10-24 Alabama
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Alabama -9.5 points @ 1.92
