Rugby
2011-10-09 - South Africa vs Australia
A Sports Betting Pick by Mike
Rugby : Rugby World Cup 2011 : Quarter Finals
Sunday, 9th October 2011 - Kickoff 18:00 (local)
Current IRB World Rankings: South Africa 2nd, Australia 3rd
The Wallabies have won four of the last five Tests against the Springboks in the last two years but the Springboks are far from your classic underdog.
Head to Head Australia v South Africa
24-07-2010 Australia 30-13 South Africa
20-08-2010 South Africa 44-31 Australia
04-09-2010 South Africa 39-41 Australia
23-07-2011 Australia 39-20 South Africa
13-08-2011 South Africa 09-14 Australia
I think these sides are actually very equally matched - in both the forwards and the back line.
The Springboks
South Africa's 2011 Rugby World Cup Results :
11/09 South Africa 17 - 16 Wales
17/09 South Africa 49 - 3 Fiji
22/09 South Africa 87 - 0 Namibia
30/09 South Africa 13 - 5 Samoa
Team and Tactics
The Springbok scrum has definitely been a weapon for them during the World Cup, but is the 2007 World Cup-winning skipper John Smit past his best?
The word from the South Africa camp is that they think they can pile enough pressure on Star No 10 Quade Cooper to nullify Australia's kicking game.
Starting South Africa Team Lineup :
Gurthrö Steenkamp 1, John Smit 2, Jannie Du Plessis 3, Danie Rossouw 4, Victor Matfield 5, Heinrich Brüssow 6, Schalk Burger 7, Pierre Spies 8, Fourie Du Preez 9, Morné Steyn 10, Bryan Habana 11, Jean De Villiers 12, Jaque Fourie 13, JP Pietersen 14, Pat Lambie 15
Replacements :
Bismarck Du Plessis 16, CJ van der Linde 17, Willem Alberts 18, Francois Louw 19, Francois Hougaard 20, Butch James 21, Gio Aplon 22
The Wallabies
Australia's 2011 Rugby World Cup Results :
11/09 Australia 32 - 6 Italy
17/09 Australia 6 - 15 Ireland
23/09 Australia 67 - 5 USA
01/10 Australia 68 - 22 Russia
Team and Tactics
The Aussies have been bleating about being "in awe" of the Springbok front line forwards. Short of "get a room" type comments, the Wallabies can't be so stupid as to not have learned that when they scrum poorly, they'll be penalised (e.g. against Ireland).
The Wallabies won't win this game by shutting down the Springboks, it will be by attacking relentlessly. Digby Ioane can be a devastating ball runner. The ball-winning ability of James Horwill and David Pocock will prove crucial.
With most of his best players back from injury, coach Robbie Deans has named a powerful team for this quarterfinal against the Springboks.
Starting Australia Team Lineup :
1 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore, 3 Ben Alexander, 4 Dan Vickerman, 5 James Horwill, 6 Rocky Elsom, 7 David Pocock, 8 Radike Samo, 9 Will Genia, 10 Quade Cooper, 11 Digby Ioane, 12 Pat McCabe, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 James O'Connor, 15 Kurtley Beale
Reserves:
16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 James Slipper, 18 Nathan Sharpe, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Berrick Barnes, 22 Anthony Faingaa
Other Variables
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (NZL)- Lawrence will have refereed Australia three times in their past five games, including their pool loss to Ireland in Auckland. Possibly an advantage?
The Venue: Wellington Stadium
The Weather: After five straight days of rain in Wellington the game time forecast is actually for fine weather. Light winds. No excuses, but perhaps a little cluggy underfoot.
The Verdict
A look at the head to head scores at the top of the page shows teams scoring 30+ and even 40+ against each other - let's be clear right now - that will not be happening in this game.
This is NOT the Tri-Nations which occurs so frequently these days that it's taken lightly with teams sending "b" squads to the away matches - this is a World Cup Quarter-Final ... and losing would be a big blow to either team - so the game will be kept tight.
Expect a big battle up front - and surely Australia will turn-up this time after effectively defaulting against Ireland - and the winning of the game may be in a single line-break and a moment of magic in the backs scoring a rare try.
That's where Australia do hold an edge - and so I make Australia favourites to get the win (just).
A tight won victory for Australia.
The Pick :
South Africa 18-22 Australia
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
Take Australia to win
