NCAA Football
2011-10-08 - Florida Gators at Louisiana State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 6
Saturday 8 October 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The SEC is clearly the most keenly contested Conference in College Football, and that means we get to see a lot of big team match ups each week. The latest of those is the visit of the Florida Gators (4-1) to the Number 1 Ranked team in the FBS, Louisiana State Tigers (5-0).
This is a really tough spot for Florida who come in having lost their undefeated record in devastating fashion when they were blown out by Alabama at home last week, a matter made worse when their starting QB John Brantley was injured.
Brantley has already been ruled out for this week, meaning Freshman Jeff Driskel will make his first start in a very tough road game.
On the other hand, Louisiana State will be looking to get Jordan Jefferson more involved as the original starting QB finally made his return from suspension last week. The problem for Jefferson has been the inspiration form Jarrett Lee has displayed in the first weeks of the season while helping the Tigers move up into the Number 1 position in the nation.
LSU will be expecting their much vaunted Defense to shut down the Florida Offense- you can almost guarantee the idea will be to prevent Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps from gaining anything much on the ground and force the new QB to beat them through the air.
They have allowed just 60 yards per game on the ground on average this season and are only allowing 2 yards per carry. Florida will need to do better than allowing Rainey to be limited to 4 yards as he was by the first stout Defense they faced this season in the form of the Crimson Tide.
You have to expect the Tigers will continue playing as they have this season and that is to limit mistakes they make and force turnovers from the Gators.
Jeremy Brown (CB) is doubtful to return this week having missed a month of football, but DeAnte Saunders (SS) will return to the team having missed last week due to suspension for violating team rules. Saunders had started the previous 4 games for the Gators.
Head to Head
LSU and Florida have split the last 10 games of the series, although the Gators had won 5 in a row against the spread before the loss last season.
Florida won their last meeting in Baton Rogue by 10 points in 2009 in a game they were favoured to win by 9.5 points.
The Gators have won their last 6 games against the spread on the road against LSU.
The road team is 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games of the series.
LSU are 3-2 against the spread this season, Florida are 3-1-1.
Other Interesting Notes
Louisiana State are 8-17 against the spread in their last 25 games at home.
They are 2-6 against the spread in their last 8 games as the home favourite.
They are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games as the home favourite of 10.5 points or more.
Florida are 15-5 against the spread in their last 20 games on the road.
They are 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record at home.
Prediction
The spread essentially means LSU are considered 4 points better than Alabama, but much of that is down to the fact that Florida will be giving a QB their first start against a tough Defense on the road.
I do like LSU to win and cover the spread and am putting my bet down early as the spread looks very likely to move over the key number 14 and we can get it under the 2 TD mark.
I like LSU for the following reasons:
First, Florida are starting an inexperienced QB on the road against one of the best Defensive Units in College, a Defense that will force them to throw to win.
Second, LSU will know they need to impress the voters very much like Alabama did with their 28 point win on the road at Florida and the Tigers are playing a weakened team.
Third, Florida are in a tough emotional state after being hammered at home last week and now face a supposedly 'better' team.
Fourth, I expect LSU will continue to win the turnover battle and that should allow them to pull away for the win and cover.
The Pick :
Louisiana State Tigers 34-13 Florida Gators
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back Louisiana State -13.5 Points @ 1.92
