Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Betting pick | 2011-10-15

NCAA Football

2011-10-15 - Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels
United States: NCAA Football Week 7
Saturday 15 October 2011 - Kick Off 12:30pm ET
5:30pm (British Standard Time)

Preview

This is a big ACC clash between two teams that look to be going in different directions on the face of things. The Miami Hurricanes (2-3) took a late loss at Virginia Tech last week, while the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1) won in a snooze-fest.

The defeat for Miami last week would have hurt as it came on a last minute TD for Virginia Tech and also dropped the Hurricanes to 0-2 in Conference play, making this almost a must-win game for them. The Hurricanes showed tremendous heart in fighting back from a 21-7 deficit at half time, but it will take some character to come back from the manner of the defeat.

Jacory Harris threw 3 TDs as he pulled Miami ahead with minutes remaining, while LaMar Miller continues to run through the opposition as he recorded his 5th 100 yard rushing game in a row. Both of these players will expect to have some success against North Carolina, although the Tar Heels do have a strong run Defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry this season.

However, Miller will look to the manner in which Georgia Tech managed to run all over the Tar Heels to think he can have another big game.

North Carolina's Defense is very much one that will bend, but not break, and they are limiting teams to just 18.5 points per game this season and also finding plenty of pressure on the opposition QB.

The Tar Heels will need their Defense to be on their game, particularly if the Offense struggles as they did against Louisville last week in a 14-7 win. They will look to Giovani Bernard to pick up where he left off last week when he ran for 109 yards and a TD and he should have a lot of success against a Hurricanes Defense that cannot stop the run.

Bernard and the rushing Offense pick up 4.8 yards per carry, and that will be essential to keeping Bryn Renner in 3rd and manageable situations. Renner really struggled last week against Louisville and now faces a Miami team that is ranked 38th in pass Defense in the nation and one that can get plenty of pressure on the QB.

Renner was sacked 4 times by Louisville last week and could find himself staring up at the sky again this week as the Hurricanes record 2.6 sacks per game.

North Carolina have a few concerns in defensive positions coming into this game. Ebele Okakpu (LB), Kevin Reddick (LB) and Jonathan Smith (CB) are all listed as questionable after missing the win over Louisville, while Cam Holland (C) would be a big miss on the Offensive Line.

Head to Head

Miami beat North Carolina by 23 points at home last season, their first win in 3 games against the Tar Heels.

That was also the first game Miami had covered against the spread, with North Carolina going 5-0-1 in the previous 6 games in the series.

The underdog is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last 7 games of the series.

North Carolina are 3-3 against the spread this season, Miami are 2-3.

Other Interesting Trends

North Carolina are 12-25 against the spread in their last 37 games as the home favourite.

They are 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 games as the home favourite of between 0.5 and 3 points.

They are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 Conference games.

Miami are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as the road underdog of between 0.5 and 3 points.

They are 5-11 against the spread in their last 16 Conference games.

Prediction

I am going to take the underdog in this one to at least keep things close for the following reasons:

First, Miami have an Offense that is capable of putting up a lot of points and that could make it hard for the North Carolina Offense to keep up.

Second, the Tar Heels have struggled to deal with the expectations of being the home favourites in recent games.

Third, Miami should be playing with a little more focus as they cannot afford another ACC defeat.

I am a little concerned with how the Hurricanes will respond to that heartbreaking loss at Virginia Tech last week, but I think they have enough talent to get a win here, although I am taking the points as a security blanket.