NFL Football
2011-10-16 - Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football Week 6
Sunday 16 October 2011 - Kick Off 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
This is a very big NFC South match up between two teams who seem to be going in different directions, even if the records would not immediately point that out. The Atlanta Falcons (2-3) finished with the best record in the NFC last season, but have struggled this year, while Cam Newton is inspiring the Carolina Panthers (1-4) although not quite in the wins column.
It is going to be very interesting to see how the Falcons recover from the Sunday Night game last week when they took a 14-0 lead over the Green Bay Packers in a revenge game from the Play Offs last season, only to then virtually get nothing going and being beaten handily.
As well as being blown out in the 2nd half, Atlanta lost Julio Jones and that leaves the receiving corps looking a little short but that is only the start of the issues they are having.
The team are struggling to get the running lanes open for Michael Turner in the absence of Todd McClure and they are averaging just under 100 yards per game this season. This may not be as much of an issue against the Panthers who have allowed just under 5 yards a carry in their run Defense, but the Offensive Line of the Falcons has other problems.
They are not finding the time for Matt Ryan in the pocket and the question is whether Carolina can take advantage of a poor Line. Ryan should figure to have some success against the Panthers Secondary, but the loss of Jones takes away a huge element of their Offense.
Now put your hands up if you are STILL not convinced about whether Cam Newton can make an impact at this level? I can see for miles... Newton has been huge for the Panthers this season, keeping them involved in every game they have played and his dual threat is keeping Defenses honest against the rookie.
Newton's athletic ability means he can scramble around and make plays with his huge arm, as well as gaining significant yardage on the ground and he figures to have a good day against a Falcons team that has allowed almost 300 yards per game through the air. Newton should feel some pressure from a returning John Abrahams and Ray Edwards, but I still expect a number of big plays with his arm.
The Panthers can certainly run the ball too as we saw against New Orleans last week. Atlanta do play the run well, allowing just 89 yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry, but they will be under pressure to stop Newton through the air and that could open the running lanes for D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart who both had long gains last week.
Head to Head
Atlanta have a 4-1 record in the last 5 games in the series, both straight up and against the spread. The Falcons have won their last 3 home games against the Panthers, both straight up and against the spread.
The favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 games in the series.
Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread this season, Carolina are 4-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Atalanta are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 games as the home favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points. However, they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Atlanta are 17-5 against the spread in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.
Carolina are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.
Prediction
I am completely sold on what Cam Newton can do so I am taking the points in this one now we can get 4.5 points for the Panthers. I like them for the following reasons:
First, Atlanta just suffered an emotional defeat at home to the Packers after blowing a big lead and will just want to win this game.
Second, Cam Newton has had a few backdoor covers already this season and you know he is capable of driving down for a late TD that gives Carolina the cover.
Third, Carolina have enough playmakers to score enough points to keep this close, if not winning outright.
Fourth, Atlanta are missing Julio Jones, Roddy White is apparently beat up and they may struggle to keep Matt Ryan upright with this Offensive Line so the game could be closer than imagined.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Atlanta Falcons 24-20 Carolina Panthers
