English Premier
2011-10-23 - Manchester United vs Manchester City
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premiership
Sunday 23rd October - Kickoff 13:30pm
Man United
After spending 5 games at the top of the table, United's run at the top is over following their 1-1 draw at Anfield last time round. Still it's not all doom and gloom as a win this Sunday over arch rivals City will put them back to the top and this is the one game the fans want to win the most!
Ferguson's side have played some breathtaking football this season and even went odds on to win the title after a few games. The price, like so many pundits overreacted and United started to drop points, not many but enough to show they are human after all.
The Red Devils started the season with 5 straight wins over West Brom, Spurs, Arsenal, Bolton and Chelsea scoring an incredible amount of goals and looking invincible. However, in the last 3 games United has dropped points in 2 of them against Liverpool and Stoke whilst beating Norwich at home in-between.
Yes, the dropped points were on their travels to two very hard grounds to visit but in all 3 games including the Norwich win, United looked poor for large spells. It's not a major cause for concern but the levels of performance have really dropped lately and unless United re-find their killer instincts, City will leave Old Trafford with the title of Premiership leaders for at least another week.
Old Trafford is a fortress with United failing to win just 1 of their last 23 games here and that was when they drew 2-2 to WBA after going 2 goals up. Since then the side has been dominating sides and in just the last 10 home games alone Ferguson's men has outscored the opposition 28-7! That's an average of nearly 3 goals a game whilst conceding less than 1 a game which over 10 games is incredible.
Team news for United is that Gibson misses out whilst Cleverley is a doubt after missing some games with a foot injury. Rio was rested midweek and should return to partner Vidic with Jones the preferred option at right back and Evra left back. In midfield there are rumours that Nani will miss out for Park but given Nani's 3 goals in recent games v City I think he will start. Up top Rooney is partnered by Hernandez in a very strong looking side.
Predicted Man United Lineup :
De Gea, Jones, Ferdinand, Vidic, Evra, Nani, Fletcher, Anderson, Young, Hernández, Rooney.
Man City
100's of millions have been spent over the past 3 years and finally City is top of the tree! Following City's 4-1 home win over Villa last week in addition to United dropping points at Liverpool, we saw the Blue side of Manchester take over at the top of the table. This Sunday, Mancini must decide whether to attack and potentially open up a 5 point lead or to defend and take home a 2 point lead.
Last season's City side would simply play for the draw here and we all know they are capable of getting the point they crave. Just see the Arsenal game at the Emirates where Mancini's men bare;y left their half all game but gave Arsenal not even a sniff on that evening.
Or, they can let the shackles off as they have done this season and play some of the best football in the league. I hope it's the latter but part of me thinks City will try to keep it tight for the first 25 minutes and if it's 0-0 slowly make an impression in the game.
When looking at City's away form, it makes good reading for Mancini with 3 wins and a draw from their 4 games. The only blemish was a 2-2 draw at Fulham where City went 2-0 up and decided to shut up shot. Fulham went gung-ho and not only did they get 2 goals but missed some good chances at the death to even win the game. After this encounter in City's next away game they didn't take their foot off the gas and steam rolled Blackburn 4-0. In the other away games City has outclassed Spurs (5-1) and Bolton (3-2), a score that very much flattered the Trotters.
This side has tons of goals in it, City has scored 27 goals in 8 games at an average of over 3 a game whilst at the other end conceding just 6. When focusing on the away split, City is averaging 3.50 goals a game going forward but they are conceding over a goal a game. Both United and City score goals for fun and despite being a close match both teams scoring looks a certainty in this one.
Team news is that Tevez once again misses the game whilst Richards is a doubt. Other than that it's as you were for City with tons of options available to Mancini. I think he will shuffle his formation here and play just 1 up top in Aguero with Silva supporting in a free role. The midfield of Toure, De Jong and Barry must have big games to contain United whilst Nasri is the other creator in the middle of the park. Lescott should keep out Kolo Toure at the back whilst Zabaleta is on hand in case Richards doesn't make it.
Predicted Man City Lineup :
Hart, Richards, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Silva, de Jong, Barry, Nasri, Yaya Touré, Agüero.
The Betting Verdict
What a great game this looks on paper with the best 2 sides in the country squaring off. I feel the emphasis is on United being the home team and the wounded animal following their Liverpool draw to come out all guns blazing looking to regain the Premiership top spot.
City have a tendency to go into their shells in these big games away from home and whilst they did beat United in last year's FA Cup Semi Final it wasn't because they went all out and attacked. City frustrated United and at times left it all to Balotelli, Silva and Yaya to do the attacking leaving plenty of players back in their own half.
United's home record is sensational whilst the head to head shows a huge favouritism towards United with the Red Devils winning 8 of the last 13 games and 4 of the last 5.
United has only shut out City on 1 occasion in the last 5 whilst keeping just 3 clean sheets in the last 10 home games overall despite winning all 10.
City as mentioned above has scored in every away game this season and has only failed to score in 2 away games in their last 10 overall. I think they will score on Sunday as I do United. For me both to score is the bet which is as low as 1.50 at some bookies but Blue Square hasn't reacted to the market as is still giving up 1.75 which suites me just fine!
If pushed I'd go for United but it's too hard to call when both to score seems so much more likely, take the 1.75 and enjoy what should be a cracking game of football.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Man United 2-1 Man City
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Both Teams to Score at 1.75
