NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - ARKANSAS @ MISSISSIPPI

NCAA Football

2011-10-22 - Arkansas at Mississippi

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

ARKANSAS @ MISSISSIPPI
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Saturday, October 22nd, 2011, 12:21PM US
(5:21PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

The Arkansas Hogs razorbacks are giving up a big number this week to Mississippi but I'm not going to go against them here. I took Mississippi to keep it within 25 lat week when playing Alabama and was looking quite foolish at the end of it. Ole Miss took the lead with a TD and then failed to score again, as they got routed 52-7.

Apart from that thrashing, the other reason to take Arkansas is that they have been idle since October 8th, as they were on a bye last week, resting and preparing for this. Before that, they crushed defending champions Auburn 38-14, so you know they are a dangerous lot.

Ole Miss are just 2-4 this season, and actually lost this fixture 38-24 last year, although I don't think they will generate anywhere near that total this time around as the Razorbacks defence is much improved. They are giving up around 21 points per game and 390 yards in total per game and have been able to really trouble offences that use an aerial game. Arkansas have given up just 6 passing TDs and have 6 interceptions in that time. Where Arkansas could improve is against the run, as they are giving up about 189 yards per game at about 5 yards per carry.

The reason Arkansas have done well is it's offence, and this is where there is a serious mismatch against Mississippi, who looked hopeless last week. Arkansas lost their star RB in week 1 but are still managing 40 points per game on 466 yards of offence. QB Tyler Wilson has been completing 65% of his passes for 1,779 yards with 12 TDs and just 3 picks. Against Auburn, they had 5 offensive TDs, of which 3 came via the run. Joe Adams was brilliant in gaining 92 yards for a TD and also put in a leading performance as receiver with 6 catches. Wilson had 262 yards for 2 TDs and no picks.

Last weeks performance at home against Alabama made me realise just how vulnerable this Mississippi defence is. I'm going to oppose them here as I can see them losing by over 20.

BETTING VERDICT

Take Arkansas to cover the spread.

The Pick :