NCAA Football
2011-11-12 - Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 11
Saturday 12 November 2011 - Kick Off 3:30pm ET
8:30pm (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Wisconsin Badgers (7-2) were being talked about as a potential dark horse for the National Championship game as they got off to a fast start, but a couple of 'hail Mary' passes has seen them lose 2 games and now they are in a tough spot to even play in the Big Ten Championship game. They will look to stay on the correct path as they visit the Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-7) who have struggled for much of this season.
Minnesota are 1-4 in Big Ten play, being comfortably beaten by Michigan, Purdue and Nebraska, although they showed some character in a close loss at Michigan State last week. Wisconsin are only 3-2 in the Big Ten, and that leaves them 2 games behind Penn State in the Leaders Division while also behind Ohio State due to their head to head record against the Buckeyes.
That is not to say the Badgers have given up hope of reeling in Penn State, especially considering they are yet to play the Nittany Lions and have dealt with the toughest aspect of the Big Ten already. Wisconsin should be able to ramp up their Offense in this game against a Golden Gopher Defense that has struggled both through the air and on the ground.
Montee Ball had a very strong game against Purdue last weekend and should continue where he left off as Minnesota have really struggled to prevent teams having their way on the ground. I very much expect Ball would have added to his 21 rushing TDs in this game, while Russell Wilson's dual-threat from the backfield should make life even more awkward for the Golden Gophers Defense.
Wilson has really added to this Offense this season and it is no wonder they have scored 47 points per game. The QB had thrown 21 TDs and only 3 Interceptions and he should have plenty of opportunities to add to these statistics as Minnesota struggle to get any pressure on the opposition QB to protect their Secondary, while also failing to record enough turnovers.
The only hope Minnesota have in this game is whether they can replicate the performance from last week when they gained over 400 yards of total Offense against a tough Michigan State Defense. MarQueis Gray had a great game for the Golden Gophers, by far the best of the season, but he will need to reproduce that effort. That will not be easy against a Badgers Defense that has allowed less than 160 yards per game through the air this season, and one that has found a way to get to the QB.
Minnesota will not find it easy to get yards on the ground either, although that will be their best way of cooling any pass rush Wisconsin generate. It will be down to Gray and Duane Bennett to get the hard yards on the ground, even though the Badgers allow just 3.7 yards per carry. The Golden Gophers could also be forced to move away from the running game if they fall too far behind.
The Golden Gophers have a number of injury issues on both sides of the ball, particularly to the Offensive and Defensive Line.
Wisconsin will be hoping David Gilbert (DE) can return to the team as he has missed the last 2 games. Gilbert is listed as questionable, but his return would be a boost to the Badgers Defensive Line as he had recorded 3 sacks this season before injury.
Head to Head
Wisconsin beat Minnesota by 18 points at home last season, although it was the road team that covered the spread.
The Badgers have won their last 3 road games at Minnesota, going 2-1 against the spread in those games.
Minnesota are 3-1 against the spread in the last 4 games in the series.
Minnesota are 4-5 against the spread this season, Wisconsin are 6-2-1.
Other Interesting Trends
Minnesota are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games at home.
Wisconsin are 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games as the road favourite of 10.5 points or more.
They are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record at home.
They are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games in Conference play.
Prediction
I am going to back the Wisconsin Badgers to cover the spread in this game, even though the line is on the high side. I am backing the Badgers for the following reasons:
First, Minnesota are not going to be able to shut down the Wisconsin Offense at all in this game and that means they will still need to score a few points to make sure they stay within the spread.
Second, the Golden Gophers are facing a really tough Defense again this week and may not have enough left in the tank after battering the Spartans with all their might last week.
Third, Minnesota have taken heavy defeats against the other quality teams in the Big Ten this season, aside from Michigan State, and Wisconsin is probably the best Offense they have faced.
The Pick :
Minnesota 17-51 Wisconsin Badgers
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Wisconsin Badgers -27 Points @ 2.00
