Arkansas Razorbacks at Kansas State Betting pick | 2012-01-06

NCAA Football

2012-01-06 - Arkansas Razorbacks at Kansas State

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Kansas State Wildcats v Arkansas Razorbacks
United States: NCAA College Football Bowl Game
Friday 6 January 2012 - Kick Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)

Preview

In one of the surprising turn of events during this Bowl season, this will be the only game played between teams that were in the Big 12 and the SEC this season. The two Conferences were considered one and two in the nation, so it is surprising that other teams have not been matched up from this prospective.

It is another surprise that neither one of these teams got the opportunity to play in one of the big BCS Bowl games after very successful seasons. The Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2) missed out as they were beaten by both LSU and Alabama, no disgrace in that, and the BCS will not allow more than 2 teams from a single Conference to play in their big Bowl games.

The Kansas State Wildcats (10-2) had their noses put a little more out of joint as they were overlooked in favour of teams like Michigan and Virginia Tech, something they feel very much aggrieved about. Kansas State's sole losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, another two schools that were considered the powerhouses of the Big 12, and possibly in the nation as far as the Sooners were concerned, before the season began.

Arkansas had a very successful season considering they are unfortunate enough to be in the same Division, let alone Conference, as the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide, the two teams that will be competing for the ultimate prize next Monday. Their success has not gone unnoticed, with both Offensive and Defensive Co-Ordinators leaving their posts as well as the Special Teams Co-Ordinator.

The Razorbacks will hand the ball to Tyler Wilson and hope he can take advantage of a Kansas State Secondary that has been susceptible to being torched through the air. Wilson has had a superb season, throwing 22 TD passes and only 6 Interceptions and he should be able to expose a Wildcats Defense that allowed over 250 yards per game through the air.

With the Wildcats allowing over 60% of passes to be completed, Wilson's biggest danger will be turning the ball over, something Kansas State have been good at creating all year. With 22 sacks and 19 turnovers, Kansas State will look to improve those numbers if they want to win this game.

Arkansas will look to keep the Wildcats honest in the game with their running game that has generated 4.4 yards per carry this season. While Kansas State have been decent in stopping the run, they could be forced to leave more players in coverage to prevent the big passing plays and that will open up the running lanes.

Kansas State's Offense trudges along in a different way to Arkansas, concentrating more on running the ball down the throat of their opposition and looking to take advantage of short and manageable situations for when they want to pass.

Collin Klein runs the Offense from under Center and is very much a run-first QB as shown by the fact he has more than double of the TDs he has thrown (12) to ones he has run in with his feet (26). The biggest danger for Klein is turning the ball over, but he has been efficient enough to only throw 5 Interceptions on the season.

The Wildcats only generate 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, but they are not scared to keep the ball on the ground as you can tell from the 47 times on average that they have run the ball this season. Arkansas give up 4.4 yards per carry on the ground, so Kansas State figures to move the chains as long as they haven't fallen too far behind on the scoreboard.

And the running game will have to work if the Wildcats want any success in this game. They have struggled to throw the ball with consistency, passing for under 150 yards per game this year, while the Razorbacks have been solid enough in the Secondary, allowing less than 200 yards per game and only 57% of passes to be completed.

Klein will want to stay out of 3rd and long situations and obvious passing downs as the Offensive Line has really struggled to protect him all season.

One major difference between the Wildcats and the Razorbacks is the ability to create turnovers, with Kansas State having an edge in that department.

Head to Head

This will be the first meeting between the schools.

Kansas State are 9-3 against the spread this season, Arkansas are 7-5.

Other Interesting Trends

Arkansas are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games as the favourite of between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games against teams from the Big 12.

However, they have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 Bowl games.

Kansas State have covered the spread in their last 6 games as the underdog given between 3.5 and 10 points.

They are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games against non-Conference schools.

They have also lost their last 5 games against the spread in Bowl games.

Prediction

This figures to be an entertaining game at Cowboys Stadium, but it is one where I feel Arkansas will eventually pull away and cover the spread for the following reasons:

First, I think Kansas State may be a little disappointed that they have not been given the opportunity to play in one of the big Bowl games and their frustration could potentially work against them here.

Second, Arkansas are capable of putting up big points (when they are not playing LSU or Alabama) and that could place some real pressure on the Kansas State passing Offense which has struggled for most of the season to play catch up.

Third, I have more faith in a SEC school than a Big 12 school that far exceeded expectations. Arkansas are the better team and I think they will show that in the 3rd/4th Quarter after Kansas State keep it close for a while.