NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - KENTUCKY @ LOUISVILLE

NCAA Football

2012-09-02 - Kentucky at Louisville

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

KENTUCKY @ #25 LOUISVILLE
American Football : North America : NCAAF
Sunday, September 2nd, 2012, 3:30PM (8:30PM GMT)

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PREVIEW

The NCAAF season is underway. So busy have I been I totally forgot about it. Anyway, there are 2 good games on Sunday so here we go.

Louisville and Kentucky are local rivals who have not met a lot, only 9 times, but they did face off last year and it ended 24-17 to Louisville. Looking at the stats and figures it's clear Kentucky aren't great, with their scoring offence and overall offensive numbers not great. They were also 5-7 last year, missing out on a bowl game. However, there are 2 big things going for them here.

Kentucky will play Louisville hard, because they are underdogs and Louisville, their local rivals, are ranked in the top 25 coming into this opener. Kentucky are also on the road, meaning the pressure is off. And finally, they seem to have returned all the star players, so they are not weaker than last year.

Louisville went bowling after they finished 7-6, but their conference is easier than the one Kentucky faced. Kentucky play in the very competitive SEC while the Cardinals compete in the Big East. Louisville are a young team, and the defence seems to be good, meaning we might just have a low scoring game. You could consider the Under 42, but I think we have a better bet on if we go with the ATS odds.

Kentucky have won this meeting 6 of out the 9 times they have faced, although they narrowly lost last years meeting. Louisville have a very good QB in Bridgewater but his top receiver is out with a buggered knee, and he threw too many picks last year for me to be completely convinced.

BETTING VERDICT

Right, I think Louisville will end up winning this, but I can't see Kentucky, with the pressure off, going and getting blown out. There is pride at stake, and they should run their neighbours close to the end, covering via the backdoor. 13 is too many points, feel free to make it safer by buying it and taking Kentucky at +14 at about 1.82.

The Pick :