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2012-08-23 - Barcelona vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: Spanish Super Cup
Thursday 23 August 2012 - Kick Off 9:30pm
This game is live on TV
Barcelona
It is all change in Barcelona when it comes to management as Pep Guardiola has been replaced by Tito Vilanova after suffering from burn-out last season. Vilanova was the Assistant Manager here and there doesn't seem to be a lot that has changed as they dismantled Real Sociedad 5-1 at the Nou Camp to open their League campaign.
Last season, Barcelona fell a little short in their bid to win the Champions League and La Liga and they ended up missing out on both of their top priorities. However, they did manage to send Pep Guardiola off with one more bit of silverware as they won the Copa Del Rey and earned their place in this Super Cup.
Barcelona were very impressive at home in La Liga last season, compiling a 17-1-1 record while scoring 73 goals and conceding just 11, giving them the top spot in both goals scored and goals conceded categories in the League. The win over Sociedad last weekend has also set their standard for the coming season.
Eric Abidal and Thiago are both expected to miss out, but David Villa's return from a broken leg will have warmed the hearts of Catalans.
Real Madrid
While Barcelona started off the new season in impressive fashion, Real Madrid were surprisingly held to a 1-1 draw at home against Valencia. That hasn't dented the confidence of the Madrid players and they are bullish in their chances of winning the Super Cup by giving themselves a lead from the Nou Camp in this first leg.
Jose Mourinho always says that the real affects of his management are seen in his second season at a new club and it seemed to be the case for Real as they won the League title last season. It would have been a disappointment that they failed to see off Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Final and that competition will be a big priority this season.
Real were fantastic away from home in the League last season, finishing with a 16-2-1 record while scoring 51 goals and conceding 13. It says a lot for them that they won at least 5 more away games than any other team in the top flight, while also being the number 1 scoring team and having the best defence on their travels.
Pepe looks set to miss this game with a knock while the likes of Sami Khedira will be hoping for a recall having been on the bench against Valencia last weekend.
Head to Head
Barcelona and Real Madrid met 6 times last season in all competitions and it ended with Barcelona winning 3 games and Real Madrid winning just 1, although that was the vital 1-2 win here towards the end of the season that virtually assured them the La Liga title.
Barcelona were actually only 1-1-1 at home against Real Madrid last season and Real have now lost just 1 of their last 4 visits to this stadium since a 5-0 League loss in 2010-11.
Prediction
I was a little surprised to see Barcelona as short as they are to win this game and that leads me to thinking that taking Real Madrid to avoid losing is the way forward in this game.
Jose Mourinho clearly has a favoured method of playing Barcelona here at the Nou Camp and it has been rewarded with a number of positive results. Real Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 4 games here and even that defeat was down to an 88th minute goal last season in the Super Cup.
Real Madrid have also scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 games here and that may be enough for them to avoid defeat again.
It's never easy going against Barcelona in games at the Nou Camp with their attacking players on offer, but I think 2.20 on Real Madrid to avoid defeat looks a touch high to me.
The Pick :
Barcelona 2-2 Real Madrid
