NCAA Football
2012-09-15 - Louisiana at Oklahoma State
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: College Football
Saturday 15 September 2012 - Kick Off 12pm ET
5pm (British Time)
Preview
The Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-1) were stunned in the desert last week and they will be looking to get back on the horse and give themselves some positive vibes going into their first bye week, especially in the knowledge that they have to play Texas in their next game. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (2-0) have won both of their opening games, including a huge Conference win Troy last week, but this is a much sterner test of their credentials.
The Cowboys may have lost the likes of Dez Bryant, Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon to the NFL over the last couple of seasons, but the Offense hasn't taken a step back in the opening games even if they did lose one of those.
West Lunt was given the job as the Oklahoma State Quarter Back and he threw 4 touchdown passes in the loss to Arizona last week, although he has 3 interceptions, a key one leading to a pick 6 and putting the Cowboys in a position from which they could not recover. Lunt should have a very big week again this week as he goes against a Louisiana Defense that has allowed almost 350 yards of passing Offense in their first two games and 65% completions.
The Oklahoma State Offensive Line has given Lunt enough protection and I expect him to come out and make a number of big plays this week. The Ragin' Cajun Defense has been stout against the run, but they will be heavily tested by Joseph Randle and the Cowboys Offense that racked up 6.3 yards per carry last week.
I have little doubt the Cowboys are going to be moving the chains at will in this one and the question then becomes whether the Ragin' Cajuns can keep up.
Louisiana have lost their starting Running Back for the season, but Alonzo Harris is a good replacement for them, although it will be interesting to see how much room he gets against the Cowboys Defense that limited Arizona to 3.7 yards per carry. Harris and co have put up 4.9 yards per carry in their first two games, but the Cowboys are a step up in competition.
Even the Oklahoma State pass Defense has improved in terms of numbers in the early portion of this season, although they haven't forced the turnovers as they were doing a year ago. Blaine Gautier has been banged up for Louisiana, although the Quarter Back is expected to go in this one. However, the Ragin' Cajuns haven't been consistent with their passing game and they are completing less than 55% of their passes.
To make it tougher for them, the Cowboys will be bringing a lot of pressure on Gautier or Terrance Broadway depending on who gets the call at Quarter Back. All in all, it could be a tough day for Louisiana in moving the chains with any consistency against the Cowboys.
Head to Head
This is the third season in a row that the schools will be playing one another and unsurprisingly Oklahoma State have won both, although the games are split 1-1 against the spread.
Oklahoma State won by 27 points last season here in Stillwater, although they didn't cover the 38 point spread.
Other Interesting Trends
Louisiana have won their last 7 games against the spread when playing non-Conference schools.
They are 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games on the road.
Prediction
I am going to back the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, Oklahoma State have dominated their home games against Louisiana, winning those by 31 points per game.
Second, this Cowboys team should be extremely angry with the way they blew the game last week against Arizona, having too many penalties and throwing a couple of costly turnovers and I expect them to take advantage of the porous passing Defense that Louisiana have been displaying.
Third, I just don't believe the Ragin' Cajuns will be able to keep the ball moving with consistency in this one and that means the game could be prolonged as they are forced to pass to keep up and may even lead to some Cowboy turnovers allowing Oklahoma State to cover.
The Pick :
Oklahoma State 48-17 Louisiana
FIXED ODDS BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Oklahoma State Cowboys - 22.5 Points @ 1.95
