NCAA Football
2012-09-22 - Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football Week 4
Saturday 22 September 2012 - Kick Off 12pm
5pm (British Time)
Preview
The West Virginia Mountaineers (2-0) have looked like a genuine contender to get to the National Championship Game in the early portion of the season, although they are yet to get their Big 12 schedule off which will begin next week. First off they will face the Maryland Terrapins (2-1) who will be looking to bounce back from their first defeat of the season last week.
Maryland have been basing their success this season on their Defense, but that unit will face by far the toughest test of the season against this West Virginia Offense.
Geno Smith is a Heisman candidate and has opened the new season with 9 touchdown passes and he is yet to be intercepted while he is averaging 367 yards per game through the air. Smith has only had 9 incompletions from his 75 passing attempts this season and I think he will be able to make some big plays against the Terrapins Defense despite the fact that they have allowed just 124 yards per game through the air.
It's not like Maryland can sell out to defend the pass either as the Mountaineers are averaging 226 yards per game on the ground this season at 7.4 yards per carry. Maryland have allowed 103 yards per game at 2.6 yards per carry, but they were hammered on the ground by North Carolina last week and I expect West Virginia are going to continue their high Offensive output.
On the other side of the ball, the Terrapins have struggled to run the ball effectively so far and are facing a Defense that is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. That means the pressure looks set to be on Perry Hills, the freshman Quarter Back, but it could be a long day for him too.
Hills has the team averaging under 150 yards per game through the air this season but the pass Defense is the weakest aspect of the West Virginia team- however, don't be fooled by the stats as teams are having to pass against the Mountaineers to try and keep up with them on the scoreboard.
If Maryland struggle to run the ball as expected, Hills is going to be in obvious passing situations and could really start having a bad day. The Terrapins are allowing 3.7 sacks per game and West Virginia do have the pass rush to get at the Quarter Back and that kind of pressure does lead to turnovers and short fields for the powerful Mountaineers Offense.
Head to Head
West Virginia have won 6 games in a row in the series, while they have also covered the spread in the last 5 games.
The Mountaineers have won their last 3 home games against Maryland, covering the spread twice in a row.
Other Interesting Trends
Maryland are 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 games overall.
They are 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games against non-Conference schools.
Prediction
I am going to back the West Virginia Mountaineers to win this game and cover the spread for the following reasons:
First, they have a ridiculously powerful Offense that should be able to score 40+ points again in the contest as they have a balance that will be tough for Maryland's Defense to deal with.
Second, the inexperience on the Maryland Offense will make it tough for them to keep up with West Virginia while they do have a chance of turning the ball over and allowing the Mountaineers to work with short fields.
Third, the Terrapins haven't been the best at bouncing back from a defeat under Randy Edsall, going 1-8 against the spread in this spot and now with a young Quarter Back running the show for them.
The Pick :
West Virginia 48-20 Maryland Terrapins
