NCAA Football
2012-12-27 - San Jose State at Bowling Green
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
American Football : North America : NCAAF : MILITARY BOWL
Thursday, December 27th, 2012, 3:00PM (8:00PM GMT)
PREVIEW
San Jose State finished 10-2 and will now take on 8-4 Bowling Green in this years Military Bowl, the first of 3 games today. The Spartans went 5-1 in the WAC, but Bowling Green were also good in the MAC, going 6-2. San Jose State are favoured by 7.5 points, and that extra point has me leaning the way of the Falcons.
Bowling Green have impressed and made me fair bit of cash through this season, and I am going to keep faith with them. San Jose has a massive motivational problem here, as I expect a letdown after their coach Mike MacIntyre left to go to Colorado a fortnight ago. Not enough time has passed to recover from that decision, and it will affect the way the players play.
Yes, San Jose State won 6 straight to close the season, and the QB David Fales has been excellent in throwing just 9 picks to 31 TD passes with a very good completion rate of 72%, but the loss of the coach will see them suffer a letdown. Also, they are playing a very good defence. Bowling Green aren't going to allow the Spartans to have an easy game, as they are allowing under 16 points per game, a whole 6 points better than San Jose State have done on D. Bowling Green have allowed opponents just 290 yards per game, 7th best in the country!
While San Jose went 6-0 to close the season, Bowling Green too finished strong, going 7-1 in their last 8. So no difference on momentum there, expect that they have still got their coach, and will come out focused and eager to win the Bowl game. While they did have 4 losses on the season, 3 of them came against Bowl teams very early in the season, and good ones too - V.Tech, Florida and Toledo.
Without doubt, San Jose has the superior offence, but Bowling Green is much better on defence. I think they keep this close, with a real chance at the upset. We're getting just enough on the spread for me to make my decision.
BETTING VERDICT
I'll take Bowling Green +7.5 as they should keep this within one score.
The Pick :
San Jose State 28-21 Bowling Green
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Bowling Green +7.5 @ 1.96 (PInnacle)
