NCAA Football
2013-01-07 - Alabama at Notre Dame
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NCAA Football
Monday 7 January 2013 - Kick Off 8:30pm
1:30am (British Time)
Preview
The National Championship Game is being played in Miami and two storied schools will be competing for that title as the Number 1 and Number 2 ranked teams in the nation. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) came through a vicious schedule to remain undefeated and stamp their ticket to the National Championship Game.
The Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) won the National title last season and earned their way into this game by winning the SEC Championship Game against the Georgia Bulldogs. It looked like they would not be able to defend their title when they lost to Texas A&M, but defeats for the Oregon Ducks and Kansas State Wildcats allowed Alabama to get the inside track.
Much like the game between Alabama and the LSU Tigers last season, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle and there are likely to be a couple of big plays that separate which of them come out on top.
Both teams have a similar philosophy on the field and that is no surprise considering Brian Kelly has openly stated that he wanted to copy Nick Saban's model as soon as he became Head Coach of the Fighting Irish.
Both will look to run the ball effectively and then look for their stifling Defense to give their Offenses a chance to put up enough points for the win. Neither has been that effective at passing the ball, but they have Quarter Backs that can manage the game well enough and will look to limit mistakes.
Alabama will give the ball to Eddie Lacy and TJ Yeldon and hope they can enforce their tough running game on proceedings. The Crimson Tide have averaged 225 yards per game on the ground this season, although they are coming up against a stout run Defense that has allowed 92 yards per game on the ground at 3.2 yards per clip.
The key here will likely be the more battle hardened Alabama Offensive Line against a big Notre Dame Defensive Line. While the Fighting Irish Defensive Line has to be respected, I think they will still find it tough against this Alabama team and I can see the Crimson Tide eventually wearing down the Fighting Irish up front.
The Offensive Line has also been very good at protecting AJ McCarron who has thrown 26 touchdowns this season and tossed only 3 interceptions. It has been possible to pass the ball against this Notre Dame Defense this season, although they have created turnovers. However, the experienced McCarron should be able to take care of the ball for Alabama.
As with the Crimson Tide, Notre Dame thrive on their powerful rushing Offense to keep the team in short yardage situations. They have also rushed for an average of over 200 yards per game, but Alabama are even tougher defending the run than Notre Dame, allowing just 72 yards per game on the ground at 2.5 yards per carry.
Theo Roddick, Cierre Wood and Quarter Back Everett Golson have all helped Notre Dame wear teams out by running the ball consistently but this is the toughest challenge they would have faced so far this season.
The running game will need to be established by Notre Dame so Everett Golson doesn't have to force the ball from obvious passing situations. There is a lot of excitement about Golson's future, but he is a redshirt Freshman and he has 11 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions this season.
Golson will be going up against a very good pass Defense which has allowed 166 yards per game through the air. Alabama are also capable of turning the ball over, but Golson should be well protected by his Offensive Line who should allow him time to make plays down the field.
Head to Head
These two schools have met 6 times in the pass and Notre Dame have won 5 of those including a 37-6 win in their last meeting in 1987.
They last met for the Championship in 1973 in what was a 1 point Notre Dame win.
Prediction
This is a really close game with both teams mirroring one another in the way they will play and approach this game.
However, I do think Notre Dame were building a team capable of going on a run next season and I think their inexperience will be the difference when it is all said and done.
Alabama are more battle tested playing in the SEC and I think they will do enough on both sides of the ball to win the game and cover the spread.
The Pick :
Notre Dame 10-20 Alabama
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back the Alabama Crimson Tide - 9.5 Points @ 1.92
