NFL Football
2013-01-20 - Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NFL Football
Sunday 20 January 2012 - Kick Off 6:30pm
11:30pm (British Time)
Preview
As a Miami Dolphins fan, it is not a good feeling knowing the New England Patriots (13-4) are hosting yet another AFC Championship Game and are very likely the team I'll be rooting against in the Super Bowl yet again. It hasn't been so bad in recent years as the Patriots have lost a number of times in the big game, but I'll be hoping their progress is curtailed by 'destiny'.
The Baltimore Ravens (12-6)certainly do believe that 'destiny' and 'fate' are on their side as they look to right a wrong from a season ago. Everyone remembers the Ravens outplaying the Patriots down the stretch of their AFC Championship Game, only for Lee Evans to drop an easy touchdown and Billy Cundiff to completely choke the game-tying Field Goal.
With Ray Lewis announcing his retirement, a lot of the Defense know this is probably their last run together as a unit and they have rallied together with Baltimore putting up impressive Play Off wins over Indianapolis at home before knocking off Denver on the road.
New England had it much easier last weekend as they once again exposed the issues the Houston Texans have on both sides of the ball. However, it wasn't all positive and light for Houston as they did lose Rob Gronkowski from the Offense, a big loss even though the Patriots played without him for much of the final quarter of the season.
I also don't think Tom Brady will be too concerned that he has to implement the likes of Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez into the Offense a little more. Brady continues to play as one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL and he will be ready to go against this banged up Secondary. However, the Ravens have been playing better on that side of the ball in recent games and it was that unit that picked Peyton Manning to win the game last week.
Still, Brady should be able to dump little passes out to Steven Ridley or Shane Vereen out of the backfield to keep the chains moving while setting up a big play to Brandon Lloyd.
The Running Backs are also likely to find some room with their ground game as that is one area where Baltimore have definitely receded this season. Ray Lewis isn't as quick at plugging up the holes as he used to be so it does give Ridley and Vereen a chance to get some solid yards on the ground.
While everyone knows roughly what they will see from Tom Brady, Joe Flacco continues to be a polarising figure, but one that is surely going to be given a big contract extension in the off-season.
Flacco opened the season by exclaiming that he is an 'elite' Quarter Back and he has rarely disappointed when it comes to the Play Offs. Once again, he outplayed a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer when beating Peyton Manning last weekend, just a year after outplaying Tom Brady in a game Baltimore went on to lose.
Even with Aqib Talib in the Secondary, the Patriots remain a team that give up a lot of yardage through the air and Flacco certainly has the arm to expose those Defensive issues. Flacco should be given the time by his Offensive Line to let the routes develop in front of him and there are enough weapons in this passing game to see Baltimore moving the chains.
Baltimore also have Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce in the backfield who are a tandem that can cause some problems for New England. In all honesty, New England have been solid against the run all season, but Rice did gash them earlier in the season. Also, Houston, a team that many knew needed to establish Arian Foster to get anywhere in the game, managed to run the ball on the Patriots last weekend.
Rice and Pierce should be able to do the same and that will give Flacco a little more time to find his receivers and keep the Ravens moving towards pay dirt.
Head to Head
Baltimore were beaten in New England last season at this same stage of the season in a 3 point loss, but they did get a measure of revenge by beating the Patriots in the regular season this year.
The Ravens have lost their last 2 visits to New England since beating them in the Play Offs here in 2010.
Prediction
There are a couple of hot trends that are favouring New England in this one, but I like taking the points on offer as it just looks like too many to give away in this game.
They have played a number of close contests over the last few seasons which shows they are more closely matched than the layers are giving credit.
The spread has surprised a lot of people and I hate when that happens as the bookies are the rich ones, not everyone else, so it does worry me that so many like Baltimore with the points.
However, the Ravens do look the right call with the 'eye' test and I think the Defense can put together one more big effort to give their Offense a chance to win this one. 8 points looks a lot to give a team in this one and I like the Ravens with the points to cover...
Fingers crossed for the Harbaugh Bowl on February 3rd.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
New England Patriots 27-24 Baltimore Ravens
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I'll back the Baltimore Ravens + 8 Points @ 1.95
