Italian Serie A
2013-04-14 - AC Milan vs Napoli
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Italy : Serie A
Venue: "San Siro", Milano
Sunday 14th April – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
AC Milan (3rd W17 D7 L7)
AC Milan lost two points last week after throwing away a two goals lead in Firenze against a 10-men Fiorentina.
The Rossoneri remain on the third position but the deficit against second placed Napoli increased to four points, so a win here would not be enough to overtake the Sicilians in the Serie A table.
As if losing two points in such manner wasn’t enough, Milan will also have to cope with the absence of striker Mario Balotelli, who starts a three match ban after verbally abusing a referee during the Fiorentina match.
Giampaolo Pazzini who came off the bench in the second half against Fiorentina will lead Milan’s attack against Napoli, supported by El Shaarawy and Boateng.
Napoli (2nd W18 D8 L5)
Since leaders Juventus are rarely showing signs of weakness, Napoli could only hope to maintain their second position in the Serie A table until the end of the season.
The Azzurri enjoy a four-point lead over AC Milan, so victory at San Siro would see the Sicilians move seven points clear.
Napoli is coming into this match on the back of a 2-0 home win over relegation threatened Genoa. They produced an amazing show on their last trip, scoring five goals in Turin to secure a 5-3 win over Torino.
Coach Walter Mazzari has no injury concerns for this match, he has his full squad available to face Milan. Pandev and Cavani will start up front supported by Hamsik.
The Betting Verdict
I think that it’s safe to assume that both sides will take part in the Champions League in the upcoming season, Fiorentina, Lazio or Inter doesn’t seem capable to keep up with Milan and Napoli.
I’d say that there is a lot at stake here, the team that finishes third in Serie A will have to play qualifiers to reach the UCL group stages, so they’ll have to start the preparations for the next season earlier which is always an inconvenience.
AC Milan is coming into this match on the back of eight consecutive home victories at the San Siro, nine if we include the 2-0 win over Barcelona in the UCL and even if Napoli’s had such a great season it will still be difficult for them to avoid the defeat here.
In eight of those nine wins AC Milan managed to score at least twice, so that’s the bet I’ll be taking here. Napoli conceded five goals in their last two trips and let’s not forget the reverse fixture when they were unable to preserve a 2-0 lead and allowed El Sharaawy to score a brace to salvage a point for Milan.
Taking Milan to score two or more goals at prices similar to those for the home win has the advantage of offering protection against results like 2-2 or 2-3, the only result that would be frustrating would be a 1-0 home win.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
AC Milan 2-1 Napoli
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take AC Milan total goals - over 1.5 at 2.05 at ladbrokesConfidence: 6/10
