World Cup
2013-10-11 - England vs Montenegro
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: World Cup Qualifiers
Friday 11 October 2013 - Kick Off 8pm
This game is live on TV
England
There is an upheaval happening in English football as a number of bodies and ex-professionals get together to try and hash out the best way to improve the national team. While many of those are making it clear that winning the World Cup in 2014 is not possible, the media are not going to let Roy Hodgson get away with failing to qualify for the tournament in Brazil next summer.
While they go into this round of fixtures at the top of their section of the qualifiers, England have failed to beat any of the 'established' nations they have played in the Group. Now they have to win their remaining two games against Montenegro and Poland, both at Wembley Stadium, if they are to guarantee a place at Brazil with Ukraine poised to pounce if England fail to do so and leave the door open.
England are currently 1 point clear of the Ukraine, but both Montenegro and Poland are also capable of finishing in the top two although things will be clearer after Friday night when the top four meet one another. England are 2-1-0 at home in the qualifiers, but they could only draw against Ukraine and wins over Moldova and San Marino were very much expected.
They do bring an 8 game unbeaten run into this game, although England have only won half of those games. Since a 2-3 loss to Croatia here, which cost England a place in the Euro 2008 tournament, England have been on a 12 game unbeaten run at home in qualifiers and they have won 9 of those games.
Roy Hodgson would have been over the moon to see the squad he announced last week all come through their last domestic games of the season without picking up more injuries. The real question is how will the manager approach this game and whether he will pick Daniel Sturridge or Danny Welbeck to partner Wayne Rooney.
Montenegro
After breaking with Serbia and pursuing qualification on their own merits, Montenegro have come remarkably close to getting through to the main tournaments at Euro 2012 and now for this World Cup in Brazil. With the way results have panned out, it is unlikely that Montenegro will earn automatic qualification, but they have experienced the Play Offs before and will be looking to at least give themselves another chance to get to a major international tournament.
The side are currently 3rd in this section of the qualifiers and their 15 points means they are only 1 point behind England at the top of the Group and level on points with Ukraine. Montenegro will head to England with a game at home against Moldova to come and a win here would certainly give them full control of one of the top two places, while a draw would keep the pressure on England next week.
After a really positive start to the Group when Montenegro looked the biggest threat to England's chances of reaching Brazil, they have failed to win any of their last 3 qualifiers and 4 overall at just the wrong time. The most disappointing result was the 0-4 loss at home against Ukraine which gives the latter the tie-breaker if they finish on the same points.
Montenegro are unbeaten in their last 6 away games, 4 of those qualifiers, and they earned a 1-1 draw in Poland in their most recent qualifying game on their travels. However, England need to be aware that this is no easy game against a team that has won in the Ukraine during this qualifying section.
Head to Head
These two teams have become familiar with one another over the last two qualifying campaigns and this will be their fourth meeting in three years.
The last 3 games have all ended in draws, including a 1-1 in Montenegro earlier in the campaign.
England and Montenegro played out a goalless draw at Wembley Stadium one day short of exactly three years ago.
Prediction
There just seems to be a lot chaos around the England team at the minute which shows the scale of pressure which is on the home team to win their 2 remaining qualifiers and book a place in Brazil.
We have heard Harry Redknapp criticise the decision to appoint Roy Hodgson ahead of himself, while Jack Wilshire made some interesting comments over who should, and shouldn't, be eligible to play for England in the future.
It will be interesting to see how the England team respond to some of these issues and I can see this being a fairly tense night for the hosts. Montenegro are a hard team to play and, barring that result against Ukraine, they don't concede a lot of goals as they remain organised and resolute in the face of pressure.
England are also likely to be a little cautious with the way Roy Hodgson approaches games and I can see them looking to be solid too knowing that they have the whole game to get a goal. I do think there are goals in the England team with the way that Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge have opened the season, but they may have to be patient at times.
I would be surprised if we see a dearth of goals in this one and this could easily be settled by just a solitary strike, but England seem to be one of these teams that play spectacular football one game and can be turgid another.
Joe Hart does concern me, but I do think England can win this one with a clean sheet to boot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
England 2-0 Montenegro
